The latest figures which indicate a further 10 per cent decline in the rate of reported crime, suggest that we may have reached a turning-point. The latest steep decline confirms a trend evident over the past three years. There are good grounds for optimism that we do not have to consider an annual increase in recorded levels of crime and violence as inevitable. This is not to suggest that some kind of panacea has been found. By its nature, crime is random and unpredictable. And a drop in gross figures may tend to mask or divert attention from serious crimes. The Garda must be concerned over the unsolved disappearances of so many women and the failure to make arrests in a number of murder inquiries. But it seems that the declining levels of reported crime are already having a beneficial effect on the streets, in business, and in people's homes. The fear of crime which appeared to grip parts of the major cities and isolated rural areas for much of the past decade, has receded. For th e moment, there appears to be less concern about crime on the streets - and on the airwaves. The Minister for Justice, Mr O'Donoghue, and his predecessor, Mrs Nora Owen - who established the Criminal Assets Bureau - are both entitled to some credit. The vigour with which the Garda authorities approached Operation Dochas, the antidrugs campaign, with some 17,000 arrests and over 7,000 people charged, also deserves recognition.
The drugs crisis has not disappeared. Heroin still holds large swathes of working-class Dublin in its grip. For many young people, the use of so-called recreational drugs, like ecstasy, has now become an integral part of a night out, as a report in today's editions of this newspaper makes clear. But it is also the case that the Garda and the Criminal Assets Bureau have largely succeeded in breaking up the major drugs gangs and tackling the supposed `godfathers' who were allowed to cock a snook at the criminal justice system. The lack of detailed research and information on crime patterns makes it difficult to explain the fall-off in the statistics. Undoubtedly, the strong growth in the economy has played a part by generating employment opportunities. Stronger action by the gardai and the courts, the firm response of individual communities and more favourable demographics - there are fewer males aged 18-25 in the population - may have also contributed to the fall-off in the crime statistics.
The continued buoyancy in the public finances now presents an opportunity to make serious inroads into the causes of crime. Greater investment in education and child-care facilities in underprivileged communities must now be given the priority it deserves. The Government might also support plans - like those mooted by Dublin Corporation this week - to redevelop some of the worst enclaves of social deprivation in the State. In making the case for a £100 million allocation, the city manager, Mr John Fitzgerald, put it starkly; "These areas have been stubbornly excluded from the boom. If we can't do something about them now, what hope have we got when the inevitable downturn comes around?"