Unless there is a last-minute change of stance by the Ulster Unionists, or unless the IRA can show that actual decommissioning of its weapons has begun, the Northern Ireland institutions will cease to function at the weekend. At this writing, the possibility of a new statement from the IRA is reported. But if it is to alter the equation it will have to be specific and substantive. Otherwise, with Mr David Trimble unwilling to go forward for re-appointment as First Minister, the Secretary of State must suspend the Executive and the Assembly. Fresh elections have to follow. The peace process and the Belfast Agreement will yet again be in crisis.
It is a dismaying prospect. But the crisis does not necessarily have to lead on to catastrophe. If the institutions are suspended for just one day, the Secretary of State may be able to buy a further six weeks before elections are necessary. Within that time-frame it should be possible to put the bona fides of the contending elements to the test. If it is genuinely the will of both unionists and republicans to give effect to the democratically-expressed wishes of the people, there will be time to do so.
No dispassionate observer doubts the integrity of General John de Chastelain's commission which has been charged with overseeing the disposal of paramilitary weaponry. On Monday the commission said it was satisfied that the proposal from the IRA "initiates a process that will put IRA arms completely and verifiably beyond use." Regrettably - but perhaps understandably - that is not sufficient for the unionists. It signifies future action rather than present reality. The proof that republicans have chosen between politics and the gun is not actually to hand.
Mr Trimble is likely to be penalised by world opinion for his failure of faith. But it behoves his critics to understand that the republican organism lives only partly in the world of democratic politics. The other part retains its paramilitary structure. Since its guns have "fallen silent" it has murdered more than a score of people, North and South, whose existence it has found inconvenient. It continues to dispense summary justice in so-called punishment attacks. Its ultimate authority is the Army Executive. The representative institutions of this State are, in its logic, usurpers. If David Trimble doubts, he can hardly be blamed and he should not doubt alone.
Suspension of the institutions may be unavoidable. But if the IRA's proposal to General de Chastelain means what it says, the "process" must surely get under way swiftly, enabling the commission to affirm that there has been real movement as distinct from mere talk of movement. In that situation, the case for Mr Trimble re-entering the scene as First Minister would be unanswerable. The unionist leader has shown himself willing in the past to go the extra yard - to "jump first" in Mr Gerry Adams's expression. He can and, in time, probably will do so again.