The pace of political events late yesterday afternoon would seem to signal that the stability of the first Fianna Fáil tripartite Coalition, supported by a number of Independents, could be under real threat. The statements by various TDs in, or aligned to, the Coalition parties, coupled with the sudden resignation of the new Fianna Fáil TD for Wicklow, Joe Behan, amount to a dual challenge to the authority and credibility of Mr Brian Cowen's Government in the most difficult of times.
The whole edifice of this four-pronged, fire-proofed Coalition - so carefully and creatively assembled by former taoiseach, Bertie Ahern, before his resignation from office - could be crumbling over their crass handling of the budget decision to remove the automatic right to medical cards to people who are over 70 years of age.
It is difficult to see how Mr Cowen, Minister for Finance, Brian Lenihan, Minister for Health Mary Harney and Minister for the Environment, John Gormley will extricate themselves from this crisis. A procession of Fianna Fáil TDs - many with other issues - have been emboldened by the decision of Mr Behan to resign. How many more will find the courage to reveal themselves after their constituency clinics this weekend?
Then, there's the Green Party which has been an exemplary and compliant member of Government even to the extent of admitting that the green agenda was disappointing in their first budget. Their deputy leader, Mary White, said last evening that the Green Party wants this decision changed. Would they vote against the Government, she was asked. "A day is a long time in politics", she replied. Some of the Independent TDs supporting the Government from outside, Michael Lowry and Finian McGrath, have publicly stated that they have issues with the decision and it remains to be seen where they and their cohort will stand.
There's the position in which Progressive Democrats leader and Minister for Health, Mary Harney, is placed as the advocate of the policy to remove medical cards from the over-70s with Cabinet approval. There was some speculation in Leinster House last night that she would resign if there was a climbdown.
Standing back from it all, it is clear that the Government, proposing a difficult budget, never saw this political landmine. It is even conceivable that the decision to end the entitlement of the over-70s to a medical card was inspired solely by the desire to dismantle the deal done with the Irish Medical Organisation in 2001 to pay treble the payment for those who previously held medical cards.
Fine Gael has tabled a private members motion in the Dáil next week opposing this provision in the Budget. The different parties will be required to vote on it. But there is a conflict to be addressed: Dr James O'Reilly was head of the Irish Medical Organisation at the time that the deal was negotiated while he now has a different stance as health spokesman of Fine Gael. The stakes are high.