There are heartening signs of political progress being made within the Northern Ireland talks framework while, at the same time, concerns over an imminent split in the Provisional IRA appear to be receding. These are difficult and dangerous times for all concerned, when loose talk and unwarranted demands could do untold damage to a fragile political climate. Now, more than ever, a willingness to explore new concepts and to compromise on traditional positions will spell the difference between success and failure. At the heart of this difficulty lies the absence of trust that exists between republicans and unionists arising from the violence of the past 30 years and the long history of discrimination suffered by the minority community.
Last week's meeting between the Taoiseach, Mr Ahern, and the leader of the Ulster Unionist Party, Mr David Trimble, in London has been described as "very useful and fruitful" by the Government and, less enthusiastically, as finally getting to "the red meat" by Mr Trimble.
A great gulf still separates the sides in their approach to "balanced constitutional change", under the terms of the Framework Document, and in connection with the nature and extent of North/South linkages. Difficulties remain to be surmounted in relation to new East/West arrangements but the Government has exhibited a degree of flexibility there, in response to unionist suggestions, that augurs well for the future.
The two governments seem to be working well in addressing some of the more immediate requirements of both loyalists and republicans on the issue of prisoners. Legislation will be rushed through the Dail before Christmas to facilitate the transfer of republican prisoners from British jails and nine inmates are expected to be transferred within the next five weeks. The level of security on the streets of Northern Ireland is also being addressed, as was evidenced by the recent repatriation of British soldiers. But the worrying re-emergence of IRA punishment shootings; of rioting and the armed hijacking of cars and the parallel activities of the so-called Continuity Army Council have made this an extremely difficult area. In that regard, the apparent failure of IRA dissidents in the Border counties to attract significant support in their opposition to the peace process and the leadership of Mr Gerry Adams is a heartening development and will, hopefully, lead to a more realistic evaluation of the political advances that can be expected by republicans at this time. Later this week, proposals on arms decommissioning from the International Commission on Decommissioning will be discussed by the parties at Stormont and they will almost certainly give rise to disagreement and controversy. But, having devoted a great deal of time and effort to removing them as a stumbling block to substantive negotiations, the governments are unlikely to permit them to reassert their old stranglehold.
This week's Stormont discussions will concentrate on Strand One of the talks and the establishment of a Northern Assembly that could attract majority support within both communities. It is regarded as the lesser of the difficulties facing negotiators. But nationalists and republicans will be anxious not to concede too much under this heading before more contentious issues in Strand Two are addressed.
The review process, which begins in about two weeks, will provide the first clear indication of progress.