A nervous world reacted anxiously yesterday to North Korea's launch of seven test ballistic missiles, following a prolonged negotiating standoff after its recent withdrawal from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty. Japanese and United States demands for United Nations sanctions will reverberate in coming days, despite the opposition of China and Russia. Significantly, currency and oil markets were affected by the news, indicating that it increases international uncertainty. This extends to North Korea's motives for launching the missiles, despite warnings about the likely consequences.
This is the world's most secretive and totalitarian state. For years it has conducted a cat's cradle of negotiation and shadow boxing about its nuclear weapons programme and whether it is a bargaining chip for economic aid or a real military threat. The decision to test the missiles has certainly concentrated world attention back on the country - but was that why it was taken? It is quite compatible with what is known of Kim Jong-il's rule to think he wants to be at the centre of international attention. It has been diverted from North Korea by the similar crisis in Iran over recent months.
If this is indeed the case firm measures are required in response to indicate world concern, along with a willingness to engage in hard bargaining about removing nuclear weapons from its armoury. The South Korean government is most uneasy about the tests, having made determined efforts to improve economic and human relations with the north, in the belief that this would modify its behaviour.
China, too, is driven by a fear that should the regime disintegrate it would have to absorb millions of refugees and live with regional instability. Both have pursued a policy of multilateral negotiation, with support from Russia. It remains to be seen whether that can be sustained now that Japan has reacted so strongly to this new threat. Tokyo feels particularly aggrieved because North Korea has abrogated the joint declaration made four years ago, following a previous missile launch in 1998, which equally shocked its neighbours.
President Bush has indicated that he wants to maintain the current multilateral approach to North Korea, along with Japan, South Korea, Russia and China and that he will not be drawn into bilateral talks with Pyongyang. The logic of this position is to accept that North Korea is a rational partner in this process. That assumption must be tested, now the missiles have been launched. It is not in the international interest that this state should continue with the programme and potentially link it to sales and proliferation of nuclear weapons. That must be prevented.
This can best be achieved by intensive diplomacy, backed by a credible threat of sanctions. It should not take much time to determine whether diplomacy can succeed. Having willed the confrontation by mounting these tests, Kim Jong-il must be ready to talk.