There has not as yet been a satisfactory explanation for the bizarre train of events which led to the assassination of Armenia's prime minister and a number of other leading politicians in the parliamentary chamber in Yerevan. Various motives, from gangsterism to high politics, had been suggested but none has been proved to have been clearly linked to the murders. The events in the Armenian parliament and the subsequent surrender of the gunmen have, however, drawn attention to the political and economic situation in one of the former republics of the USSR which has been largely ignored by western governments and media for some years.
Armenia was last a focus of international interest more than five years ago when a six-year conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan over the disputed territory of Nagorno-Karabakh was brought to an end following a fragile temporary agreement between the two countries. Although a part of Azerbaijan, according to international law, the territory, populated largely by ethnic Armenians, claimed a right to union with Armenia proper and in the ensuing armed conflict Azeri forces were roundly defeated.
The attack on the Armenian parliament came at a time when a permanent deal between Armenia and Azerbaijan seemed likely. Under President Haydar Aliyev, formerly Comrade Geidar Aliyev of the Politburo of the Communist Party of the Soviet Union, nationalist fervour in Azerbaijan has been replaced by a more pragmatic attitude to the Karabakh problem.
At the beginning of the century Azerbaijan was the richest oil region on earth and its capital, Baku, became synonymous with the rapid accumulation of vast fortunes. Forecasts of a return to its old riches were rife in the earlier part of this decade as western oil companies prospected in the Caspian. These forecasts have not proved to be correct and the balance of power and wealth has shifted back to the Armenian side. Many Armenians have felt that details of the proposed deal on Nagorno-Karabakh were too generous to their weakened Azeri opponents and feeling against the proposed agreement strengthened. While the motley group of bandits which perpetrated the carnage in the Armenian parliament on Wednesday spoke incoherently of corruption and the selling of the country's assets and principles, it cannot be ruled out that opposition to the deal on Nagorno-Karabakh partly motivated their actions.
Even it this is not the case it is certain that any destabilisation of the situation in Armenia is likely to bring the Karabakh problem to the fore in both countries and to increase intransigence on the part of significant sections of the general public in Armenia. What appears to have begun as a crazy adventure by a group of political extremists may have ended not only in the deaths of Armenia's politicians but also in a heightening of tensions which may yet serve to destabilise yet another region on the southern edge of the Russian Federation.