FROM THE ARCHIVES:After four years in government Fine Gael and Labour were about to break up in December 1986 under economic pressures which saw emigration rising, the national debt at 113 per cent of GDP, and 29 per cent of all income tax going on the dole. Further bad news came with the unemployment rate up to 18.3 per cent, as this lead story by John Stanley reported.
THE NUMBER of people out of work increased by over 4,500 in November, pushing the total figure back up to 237,235 – equivalent to 18.3 per cent of the workforce.
Even allowing for normal seasonal factors which cause unemployment to rise at this time of the year, latest official figures show that the underlying trend is sharply upwards, with 2,900 more people out of work than might otherwise be expected.
The figures represent a serious setback for the Government as it prepares for the inevitability of an early election and the loss of its voting majority in the Dáil. They were seized upon by the Opposition parties as convincing evidence that the Government’s economic policies had failed and that an election should be called immediately.
Perhaps the most distressing aspect of the November results are the seasonally adjusted figures. These show that the real level of unemployment had peaked this year in August at 239,800. In September the figure dropped to 237,600, followed in October by a small rise of 100.
The November figure, at 240,600 is a new high for the year, even though the less reliable indicator of trends, the unadjusted figures, suggest unemployment in January and February was higher than last month.
Defending the latest figures the Government said last night that implementation of the EEC equality directive, which allowed married women to claim for unemployment assistance on the same basis as married men, was an exceptional factor. It found solace in the fact that the 12-month increase to November was the lowest year-on-year increase in seven years.
Of the 2,900 increase in the seasonally adjusted figures only 700 were accounted for by people under 25, and only 500 by female employees. The balance of 1,700 were full-time male employees, reflecting a large number of job losses in traditional manufacturing sectors during the month.
Unless there is a significant deviation from normal trends it is almost certain that the proportion of the workforce registered as unemployed will show a further sharp rise next month. Even on conservative estimates, on the basis of past experience the rate is likely to increase to around 18.6 per cent.
For the first 11 months of this year the average monthly unemployment rate was 18.1 per cent. This compares with full year averages of 17.8 per cent in 1985. In 1982 the figure was just 12.1 per cent. The 18.3 per cent figure for November is not the highest recorded so far this year. In January it was 18.5 per cent and 18.4 per cent in February.
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