The Government is still arguing about the future of aviation and may procrastinate further, writes Mark Brennock, Chief Political Correspondent
The Government is committed to making its biggest decision on the future of Irish aviation very soon. Within the Cabinet, however, significant differences remain. The Taoiseach, Tánaiste and Minister for Transport have all stated publicly that it is now "make your mind up time". An expectation of a Cabinet decision as early as next Tuesday has been created.
Yet serious differences remain on one key issue - who will operate a new terminal at Dublin airport.
Sources in both parties acknowledge this but insist there is no crisis. But yesterday, sources in both parties sounded vague about the idea that next Tuesday would see a decision. The exceptionally long finger on which this decision has been placed for some time appears in danger of getting a little longer still.
Fianna Fáil and the Progressive Democrats are at one on the proposal that a majority stake in Aer Lingus should be sold. They both want to extend the existing Dublin airport terminal by building a new pier. They both back the construction of a second terminal to be owned by the Dublin Airport Authority which owns and operates the present terminal.
But while there seems to be agreement on the ownership of the second terminal, there is still no agreement on who will operate it. This is the crucial issue of political disagreement, and despite the discussions in recent weeks - and the previous years of debate and deferred decisions on the matter - the two parties hold distinct positions.
Both Fianna Fáil and the PDs agree that there should be a competition to determine who will operate the new terminal. However, Minister for Transport Martin Cullen has left open the prospect that the Dublin Airport Authority, which runs the existing terminal, could win the competition to run the second one as well.
The PDs say this would ensure there was no competition between the terminals and they insist that a separate operator should run it.
Fianna Fáil Government sources acknowledge that there are real differences, but play down suggestions of a serious conflict. Talks are continuing between officials. Mr Ahern, Ms Harney and Mr Cullen will ultimately sit down to finalise things and there is scope for a deal, they say.
PD Government sources don't play down the difficulties, however. No, there is not a crisis, said one yesterday, but differences are unresolved and talk of being close to a deal is wide of the mark.
Separate from the private inter-party tussle are the trade unions, major stakeholders in the debate by virtue of their large membership at the airport and the 14.9 per cent staff share in Aer Lingus.
Trade union sources accept that their concern about an independent operator of the second terminal is based on fears that their reasonably well-paid members at the existing airport will have their pay and conditions driven down by what one yesterday called "some Gama-style operator" coming in to undercut them in a new terminal next door.
Of course they deploy arguments other than self-interest. They argue - as have some independent aviation specialists and economists - that competition between airports may lead to efficiency, but competition within airports between terminals can bring chaos.
Separately, the Irish Congress of Trade Unions also states that it is opposed to either a full or partial privatisation of Aer Lingus. Congress general secretary David Begg said last weekend that he did not think the plans as outlined by Mr Cullen to sell 51 per cent of the airline were "the right thing".
In a measured contribution, he said that any minority shareholding retained by the State would ultimately be "diluted to nothing" as the private shareholder invested more and the State did not. Mr Cullen's proposal would involve "a decision effectively to totally sell the company".
He spoke of the Ictu proposal for setting up a holding company to control the State's shareholdings in State enterprises, while involving a mechanism allowing the injection of private capital. The Government had not yet responded to this, he noted.
The Taoiseach and Mr Cullen are anxious to convince the trade unions that their proposals are indeed the best thing for the future of aviation and for the security of the jobs of their members. The Government and the unions have been in close contact on the issue and further talks are expected in the next few days.
With the PDs lined up on one side and the trade unions on the other, Fianna Fáil Government sources insist unconvincingly that the differences have nothing to do with ideology. Pragmatism, not ideology, is at the heart of the discussions, they say.
But everyone sees their ideology as making pragmatic sense. For the PDs, the introduction of competition between airports - and between the terminals at Dublin airport - is a vital ingredient of the aviation package as is the taking of Aer Lingus out of State control.
But a well-placed Fianna Fáil source insisted yesterday that there was no dispute between anti- and pro-competition elements of the Government or between those who want low-cost facilities and those who do not. This is because everyone recognises that "the aviation model for the future has changed dramatically. It is all about low-cost airlines and airports. It's a no-brainer and if the Government takes a stupid decision on the airline or Dublin airport, it will be quickly found out."
Optimistic Fianna Fáil sources say that beyond the imminent Cabinet decision lies a future in which Aer Lingus, headed by its new chief executive, begins to operate new long haul routes to the US and the Middle and Far East.
In this new aviation world, Dublin airport can become a hub where these long-haul passengers switch from their long-haul flights to short-haul low-cost operators bringing them elsewhere in Ireland, to Britain, and even to mainland Europe. Passenger and tourist numbers can soar, they say with enthusiasm.
But the Government parties must resolve significant differences soon if that brave new world is to become a reality.