The decision by Nepal's Maoists to pull out of the eight party coalition government agreed after the end of their military rebellion last year is a serious setback for the country ahead of elections planned for November.
The Maoists have demanded that Nepal's monarchy should be immediately abolished, while most of the other parties say this is properly the task of the constituent assembly and the government that has yet to be democratically installed.
Last year King Gyanendra conceded an end to the martial law he declared in 2005, after a three week protest campaign, including a general strike and a series of mass demonstrations defying a curfew. Troops remained loyal to the king but were unable to withstand such a broad-based popular demand for change. The Maoists' military rebellion started in 1996 and claimed some 14,000 lives. This came after several years' experiment with a parliamentary system following a previous popular rebellion in 1989. Last year the movement's 30,000 guerrillas retired to United Nations monitored military camps while their leaders negotiated a place in the transitional government of this picturesque Himalayan state of 28 million people.
Having withdrawn from government the Maoist leadership says it will campaign for the monarchy to be abolished throughout the state with demonstrations and strikes. It has refrained from declaring an end to last year's ceasefire and there is no indication that it wants to do so. As a result its opponents believe the party remains committed to the November elections, preferring to fight them from outside the grand coalition. Despite its political and organisational strength the party remains a minority, holding about one third of parliamentary and cabinet representation. Its supporters have been disappointed by the fruits of change after the end of their rebellion, and the leadership wants to compensate for that by street campaigning for the new assembly.
Nepal's future sets a pattern for neighbouring north-eastern India, where many states and districts are controlled by Maoist parties. The ancient Nepalese monarchy's future looks bleak one way or another, since the other main parties agree it should be abolished but want to adhere to the negotiated constitutional timetable to achieve that. They disagree with the Maoists' argument that the king will inevitably disrupt November's elections to avoid that fate. So although this development is a serious setback it does not signify the end of Nepal's democratic experiment but rather an attempt to engineer party advantage during a difficult process of change on the roof of the world.