Whatever the Government says or does, Ireland is drifting towards a city-state, with Dublin as its only real powerhouse, writes Frank McDonald, Environment Editor.
Forget about the National Spatial Strategy, the public service "decentralisation" programme and all the political guff about "balanced regional development" because it's clear from the latest projections by the Central Statistics Office (CSO) that nothing will halt the growth of Dublin..
The population of the Greater Dublin Area (GDA) - which includes Meath, Kildare and Wicklow - is projected to reach 2.1 million in 2021, accounting for 40.7 per cent of a forecast population of 5 million for the State.
If Dublin's outlying dormitories all over Leinster were included, its share would be even higher.
In 1961, when the population of the State was at its lowest level (2.8 million), the GDA accounted for 32 per cent of the total.
What has happened over the past 40-odd years is that it has grown and grown at the expense of other regions, and this trend is unlikely to be reversed - whatever the Government says or does.
The CSO's projection that all regions will experience population growth over the next 16 years offers little comfort to those outside Dublin because they have a much lower base. The fastest-growing area will be the so-called mid-east region, comprising Meath, Kildare and Wicklow, precisely because it is closest to the capital.
The mid-east will also gain most (+58,000) from internal migration over the period. And although Dublin is projected to lose out to other regions because of internal migration, with 112,000 more people leaving the region than entering it, this will be more than offset by an influx of 232,000 coming in from abroad to live in the city.
This amounts to more than the gains from external migration for all other regions combined, which the CSO estimates at 60,000 for the west, 51,000 for the mid-east, 50,000 for the southwest, 48,000 for the Border region, 35,000 for the southeast, 24,000 for the mid-west and just 19,000 for the midlands.
When the Dublin and mid-east figures are combined it can be seen that the GDA will gain an extra 284,000 people in 2021 from external migration.
This contrasts with a projected outflow of 54,000 from internal migration. The only other region projected to incur a loss from this quarter is the mid-west - down by 4,000.
No doubt the Government will argue that at least some of the internal migration from the GDA to other regions would be attributable to the assumed success of the National Spatial Strategy and its controversial, if stalled, programme of relocating up to 10,300 public servants currently based in Dublin to 53 locations in 25 counties.
And while there is little correlation with the scatter-gun "decentralisation" plan, the spatial strategy designated too many "gateways" and "hubs" for any of them to make a serious dent in the GDA's share of the State's population. Certainly none will develop the kind of "critical mass" required to compete in any real way with the capital.
It is true, based on the the 2002 census and the CSO's projections for 2021, that the increase in the GDA's proportion of the total population will be relatively marginal - up from 39.2 per cent to 40.7 per cent. But even a net increase of 1.5 per cent is in the wrong direction, and will only serve to intensify congestion in and around Dublin.
The need to cater for an extra 500,000 people will put more pressure on the capital's already stretched "infrastructure", as Dublin Chamber of Commerce warned yesterday.
"Government, the Dublin Regional Authority and the county managers in the GDA urgently need to revise their plans for transport," said its director, Aebhric McGibney.
"In particular, the Minister for Transport, Martin Cullen, must ensure that the GDA receives the full package of road, rail and bus developments outlined in Dublin's transportation strategy, A Platform for Change. This package includes a Metro, Luas extensions, the Interconnector and the Southern Port Access Route."
The latter is the latest codeword used by the business community for the eastern bypass motorway, which would run southwards from the port tunnel via Sandymount and Booterstown to link up with the M50. The Interconnector is a reference to the much-needed underground rail link between Spencer Dock and Heuston Station.
Thus, the pressure is already on for the GDA to secure a greater share of overall transport investment compared to other regions.
That's an arguable case, but the effect of transferring more capital funding for infrastructure to Dublin will further copper-fasten its growth, and confirm Ireland's drift towards becoming a city-state.
The only other example of such a phenomenon in Europe is Greece, where the population of Athens accounts for more than half of that country's total.
And, despite recent improvements generated by the 2004 Olympics, nobody could claim - not even the Greeks - that Athens is a model of sustainable urban development.
The truth is that successive Irish governments have turned a blind eye to the disproportionate growth of Dublin. A laissez-faire policy - if that can be termed a policy at all - was adopted, ignoring all other options presented over the years, most notably by Colin Buchanan in the late 1960s and, more recently, by Dr Edward Walsh.
It is a shameful record of rudderless "planning" for which the gutlessness of our politicians, and the clientilist political system in which they operate, must take the blame.