OPINION:Given that unionists appear keen to 'stick it to the Shinners', there is a strong prospect of Assembly elections
IN THE midst of all the personal and political turmoil surrounding Peter and Iris Robinson, the SDLP leader Mark Durkan remarked that at least the convulsions and revelations were teaching Democratic Unionists a little humility. You’d wonder about that.
We’re down to the wire in terms of whether the current Northern Assembly and Executive can survive. It’s about two issues, devolving policing and justice and parading. Peter Robinson wants the abolition of the Parades Commission as a trade-off for policing and justice.
He won’t get that from Sinn Féin, although a compromise is eminently possible on parading. But if the DUP leader holds out for the “scalp of the Parades Commission”, then it seems like curtains for Stormont, with the prospect of fresh Assembly elections in the spring or early summer.
Sinn Féin didn’t shut the door on a possible deal at the weekend and Brian Cowen and Gordon Brown are coming over the hill to see if they can help in rescuing the process. But so disenchanted are Martin McGuinness and Gerry Adams with Robinson and the DUP in general, that they may already have decided it is pointless continuing with the current talks.
For Adams and McGuinness it is now well beyond simply policing and justice, it’s about whether there is any point in being in a coalition where your main partner’s main purpose appears to be to “stick it to the Shinners”.
Robinson and McGuinness are due to meet today, while over the weekend there was frantic behind-the-scenes activity involving the British and Irish governments with the DUP and Sinn Féin principals. It is possible that by the end of today we will have a notion whether there is any life left in the current manifestation of the powersharing project.
But back to the DUP humility factor. In an interview with the BBC on Friday, Robinson sounded far from humble. He sounded chipper, and almost smug, like a politician who had pulled something of a stroke. And perhaps he has.
“It’s been a lifetime ambition from my point of view that we have unionist unity,” he said. “It can happen, and let’s see what happens in the days, weeks and months ahead.” It seems that the talks at the Marquess of Salisbury’s stately Hatfield House in Hertfordshire in England on Sunday week were productive and creative, opening up possibilities of mergers, realignments or new arrangements between the DUP and Ulster Unionist Party, with the British Conservatives in the mix.
These weren’t the first unity talks, informed sources say. The possibility of Martin McGuinness being in line for the First Minister post following Assembly elections triggered by the collapse of the policing and justice talks concentrated minds within unionism. Were Sinn Féin to be the largest party, McGuinness would be entitled to that job.
The DUP and UUP coming to a formal arrangement prior to elections – as would be necessary under current electoral legislation – to put forward agreed candidates would almost certainly ensure this new brand of unionism would win most seats.
Unionist unity would also chime well with most unionists, although there might be concerns if the fire and brimstone evangelical DUP elements were not kept in their place.
There were attempts at unionist unity on a number of occasions throughout the Troubles, but they always failed. More often than not that was because of the Rev Ian Paisley, who was more intent on pursuing his long-term goal to be unionist kingpin. He achieved that ambition in recent years and having done so, like some Roman generals, he then decided he could make peace with his enemies.
Paisley is gone and there is now a different political equation and dynamic. Certainly, an agreement over Assembly elections is in the interests of the DUP and the UUP and must give Sinn Féin some food for thought as it weighs up its options.
The whole merger/realignment/pact scenario is being seriously considered although everything is rather inchoate at this juncture, and there are some very deep and bitter longstanding enmities to be overcome.
A very senior Ulster Unionist almost quoted a line from Bob Dylan to explain where the parties were in terms of the discussions: “Something is happening, but we are not quite sure what it is.” As UUP deputy leader Danny Kennedy said all this has short, medium and long-term implications for unionism. Informed sources say Robinson is very keen to see this experiment developed and may even be willing to stand up to his hardliners to achieve unionist unity, at the same time creating a broader, perhaps more moderate, form of unionism.
Certainly the thought of a pre-election pact with the UUP has greatly pleased him. He made it clear that if Martin McGuinness presses the “nuclear option” by walking away from the Executive, thus triggering elections, that he was ready. He even coyly suggested that such elections should take place in tandem with the Westminster elections expected in May.
But while all this talk of unionist togetherness is fascinating and important, it is still a sideshow to the current crisis which is about whether Northern Ireland can work politically.
From grassroots to top table, DUP members and politicians boast how they are “four, five or six nil up on the Shinners” denying them anything on the Irish language, the Maze Prison, restricting the North-South dimension of the Belfast and St Andrews agreements, and how, after pressurising Sinn Féin to finally support policing, seeking to make them pay big for devolving policing and justice.
It’s no way to run a coalition. Robinson appears either unwilling or incapable of thinking beyond DUP electoral concerns and to a lesser extent the wider interests of unionism. There seems to be a lack of vision. If Stormont crashes, nationalism will blame him. There will be a political vacuum. The dissidents will be further emboldened. The argument of a failed political state will be reawakened. Robinson has responsibilities and questions to answer here. This isn’t just about the DUP and unionism.
So politics in the North is once again at crisis point. Whether the Executive and Assembly are salvageable is a big question. McGuinness and Robinson will give it one last try today with Brown and Cowen willing to lend a helping hand. If Robinson doesn’t step back some distance on his parading demand, then the deal won’t be done.
The game may be up for Stormont. Best that can be said in such a circumstances is that maybe premature Assembly elections would, as one senior source said, “clear the air and allow a fresh start”.