For the first time since his election as Taoiseach, Enda Kenny hosts the Fine Gael national conference in Castlebar, his Mayo constituency. It may well be the last party conference before the next general election, due to be held no later than next spring.
Tonight Mr Kenny will, no doubt, use his address both to rally and reassure party supporters, and to impress his television audience. He needs to do so, and quickly. By last December, the poll ratings of Fine Gael and its leader had dropped to 19 per cent, a sharp decline on their poll position a year earlier. For Fine Gael and Mr Kenny, 2014 was truly an annus horribilis, and last December – they now hope – may well mark both the low point and the turning point in their political fortunes.
Mr Kenny in his Prime Time interview this week – remarkably, his first major interview with the programme since his election as Taoiseach – struggled to impress. On two matters, however, he was definitive. He ruled out coalition with either Fianna Fáil or Sinn Féin. Pre-election principle may yet, however, give way to post-election pragmatism – if the only prospect of stable government then is a Fine Gael, Fianna Fáil coalition. And the Taoiseach set May 22nd as the date for the referendum on same-sex marriage. On too many other issues, however, Mr Kenny remained hesitant and cautious.
Fine Gael has in the past year been the author of many of its own misfortunes – not least its maladroit handling of Irish Water, of health and other issues. The Taoiseach's role in the resignation of former Garda Commissioner Martin Callinan is one such. That required a full explanation in the Dáil. And it certainly did not need a commission of inquiry headed by Mr Justice Fennelly, which has yet to issue a final report. Mr Kenny's reluctance, when asked on Prime Time, to say whether he was recalled to the inquiry to give further testimony, was puzzling.
For all that, as we have seen in Ireland and elsewhere, in a time of austerity few parties of government escape the wrath of the electorate. Since 2008 few countries – save Greece – have seen a greater reduction in living standards than Ireland. And none has achieved such an impressive economic rebound so quickly, as Ireland.
For the Government parties, the hope is that as the economy recovers, austerity becomes a lesser public concern. As growth accelerates, and employment and real incomes rise, more people should feel the benefit in their pockets, generating a feel-good factor. Fine Gael, as the polls show, is seen as the party best equipped to manage the economy, an advantage Mr Kenny will be keen to remind both his supporters in the Mayo Convention Centre, and the wider audience outside.