The 2015 Westminster elections find Northern Ireland polarised between its two principal ethno-political camps, introverted as to the key issues dividing them, and yet vulnerable to potentially huge changes elsewhere in the UK. The parties remain divided on how UK-wide welfare cuts are to be funded locally. Given the very tight race between the Tories and Labour Northern Ireland MPs could make a real difference in forming a government. But the parties have not properly thought through how the North could be affected by the outcome.
The North has 18 Westminster seats, currently divided between eight Democratic Unionists, five Sinn Féin, the SDLP’s three, Alliance’s one, and one independent unionist. An election pact between the DUP and the Ulster Unionists will sharpen competition for seats in several constituencies, exacerbated by the first past the post system which benefits larger parties and reinforces sectarian polarisation.
The constituency contests express existing nationalist/unionist political divisions in the executive, along with more cross-community ones like welfare dependency, deficit reductions or gay and abortion rights. Sinn Féin’s abstentionist policy deprives it of the bargaining power at Westminster which might bolster its case against cuts. There is a limit to what the main parties can expect from London no matter who forms a government there. A cross-party consensus supports the power-sharing executive but is also increasingly impatient to see Belfast take more responsibility for its own policies and decisions.
The DUP says it will co-operate with either a Tory or Labour government; but its demands for immigration controls, a referendum on the EU, and opposition to defence cuts puts it clearly in the Tory camp. With other unionists it is nonplussed by the success of the Scottish nationalists.
Whoever wins on May 7th the UK as a whole faces a major question about how to reform its constitutional structures. Its collective affinities are weakening, making Scotland a key issue and changing English attitudes to Wales and the North too. Voters are entitled to know how the parties relate to these issues. The DUP's support for a poll on EU membership opens up the related question of how the North would be affected if the UK voted to withdraw. EU membership has been an important enabling condition for reconciliation between Dublin and London about the North and is a vital factor in ensuring its economic prosperity and future development.
The last thing Ireland needs is to see the existing Border become an EU one as well. The Northern electorate is entitled to know where the parties stand on this question. Does the DUP want to see Northern Ireland withdraw from the EU? What is Sinn Féin’s policy? If the Tories win, it will become a pressing issue.