Enlargement of the European Union from its current 27 member-states to possibly 35 or conceivably 37 members by 2033 is set to become a major agenda item for its leaders over the next three months. Decisions on enlargement were delayed after the euro-crisis and then became dormant, much to the frustration of the mainly Western Balkan applicants. The issue was reopened by Russia’s imperialist invasion of Ukraine. The resulting geopolitical shock and competition with Russia in the EU’s eastern neighbourhood has given Ukraine, Moldova and Bosnia-Herzegovina candidate membership and reopened talks for seven others.
Debates and decisions on enlargement are crisis-driven and uneven, despite being guided by the 1993 Copenhagen criteria which framed the last big enlargement. In 2004 it brought Cyprus, the Czech Republic, Estonia, Hungary, Latvia, Lithuania, Malta, Slovakia and Slovenia into the EU. The criteria laid down tests of democratic institutions, rule of law, functioning market-driven economies and commitments to EU policies and values for accession. Since then Romania and Bulgaria joined in 2007 and Croatia in 2013. The renewed enlargement round for Balkan states includes Albania, Kosovo, North Macedonia and Montenegro as well as Bosnia-Herzegovina. Georgia and Turkey are also on the list, but all have different timetables.
EU leaders are signalling fresh engagement with these states in speeches and meetings laying down the agenda for this final season of business ahead of European Parliament elections and the appointment of a new European Commission next summer. Commission president Ursula von der Leyen will address it in a speech tomorrow. The imperatives flowing from Ukraine are the major driver of renewed interest, alongside fears that a failure to grow prospects of EU membership for eastern European and Balkan states will create opportunities for Russian influence. Erstwhile opponents of rapid enlargement like France have shifted ground. There is renewed discussion of graduated or variable membership to incentivise the transition towards full accession, or to accommodate states that can’t or won’t join.
Internally any further enlargement, coming after Brexit, will force the EU to review its decision-making processes, its budget and how its major expenditures will be affected. Its capacity for effective policy-making in a new setting of power shifts within Europe, in its neighbourhoods and at global level may require a shift towards more majority voting, more democratic accountability and greater fiscal capacity. Whether there is the political will to do all this remains to be seen.
Ireland has supported and benefited from previous EU enlargements and should be in favour of this ambitious next round. To do so Ireland too needs to debate more seriously what is involved.