Despite its repeated insistence that it is conducting a targeted operation against Hizbullah fighters and weaponry, the massively escalated Israeli bombardment of Lebanon is taking an indiscriminate toll of non-combatants. As that toll rises well into the hundreds, a quarter of the dead are women and children.
The fear that this will escalate into a regional conflict embroiling Iran remains, but there is no doubt that it is already now a full-blown war. The bombing surpasses any since Israel launched a ground offensive against Hizbullah in 2006. Hospitals are overwhelmed and hundreds of thousands of people have been turned into refugees, streaming from Sidon, southern villages and the Bekaa Valley to the relative safety of the north. Like in Gaza, some of the fleeing convoys have even been attacked, Lebanon claims.
In anticipation of a fierce Hizbullah response the Israeli government has also given the military war powers to restrict civilian activity.
The Israeli Defence Forces (IDF) claims it has hit 1,600 Hizbullah terror targets inside the country. Hizbullah has responded with further, largely ineffective, missile strikes against northern Israeli communities and the city of Haifa, its capacity dented but far from eliminated.
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But Israel’s purpose in creating a buffer zone – depopulated, Hizbullah-free and unarmed – between its border and the Litani river is being realised. And, so far, reports suggest that Israel appears to not be rushing into the much-anticipated ground invasion. So far, there has not been the necessary call-up of reserves to allow this to happen.
The operation has two ostensible goals: ensuring the safe return of northern Israeli residents to their homes, and defanging Hizbullah decisively, specifically forcing it to delink the Lebanese arena from what is happening in Gaza and renouncing its support for Hamas. But, just as it found in Gaza with Hamas, the complete elimination of Hizbullah, a massive, well-armed group with strong roots in the Lebanese Muslim community, will prove an impossible and bloody task.
De-escalating the Lebanese and Gaza conflicts is, however, possible. The key remains the stalled Gaza hostage and ceasefire talks. Hizbullah has repeatedly insisted a Gaza agreement would see it cease hostilities. Despite the deterioration in Lebanon, there are reports from credible media sources that Israel and Hamas continue to express faith in their mediators who are searching for a deal and have not shut down the communication channel between them. The US says it continues to push for progress in these negotiations.
One of the main obstacle appears to be Israeli prime minister Binyamin Netanyahu, whose Lebanon war is the latest manifestation of a misguided belief that " total victory” is possible.