When polling stations close tomorrow night across the United States, many millions of Americans will wait with profound trepidation for news of who their next president will be.
They may have to wait for some time. Final opinion polls suggest that Kamala Harris and Donald Trump are effectively tied across most of the seven battleground states that will decide the result. If those numbers are correct, then the counts in those states will continue for several days at least.
A close result is not guaranteed. Given the normal margin of error of all opinion polls, predictive modelling puts the chances of a definitive victory for one candidate or the other at 60 per cent. And that does not take account of the nagging suspicion that the polls themselves, after badly underestimating Trump’s support in 2016 and 2020, will get it wrong yet again.
But indications remain that this could well be the closest contest since 2000, when George W Bush ultimately beat Al Gore by just a few hundred votes in Florida. If that scenario were to be repeated this week, the consequences for America and the world could be bleak.
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Unlike 2000, a contested election now raises the spectre of widespread civil unrest and even violence. That is in part due to the collapse of trust in public institutions which has taken place over the past two decades in the US. The balkanisation of the media landscape into entirely separate information spheres also means that each side of the political divide views the other with incomprehension and contempt.
But the threat is mostly due to the actions of Trump himself. He and his acolytes continue to peddle the lie that the last election was stolen and that moves are already afoot by Democrats to steal the current one. Neither allegation has any basis in reality and nor is it replicated on the Democratic side. Nevertheless, Republicans have put in place an army of lawyers to mount challenges against any counts that are not going to their liking, while Trump-supporting election officials have already shown their willingness to intervene on their candidate’s behalf.
Such tactics are playing with fire. The ramshackle attempt to block the election of Joe Biden four years ago culminated in the violent riot at the Capitol in January 2021. A more sustained campaign to delay or derail this year’s result could have far worse consequences for the rule of law and the constitutional integrity of the US. It would test the resilience of a judiciary which proved equal to the task in 2020 but runs the risk of being drawn further into partisan politics. And it threatens to plunge the country into months of chaos and conflict. Whatever the result of tomorrow’s vote is, it would be better for everyone if it is clear and conclusive.