THE SUDDEN eruption of war yesterday in South Ossetia is a serious development in the unstable yet strategic Caucasus region, after it was confirmed that Russian troops are now directly involved following the overnight bombardment of the South Ossetian capital by Georgian artillery.
This could be a long, drawn-out affair if it is not rapidly dampened down, as many international organisations demanded yesterday. On both sides there are deep resentments and wounds arising from minority-majority conflicts left frozen by the collapse of the Soviet Union which have recently been reactivated by geopolitical rivalries between Russia and Nato states.
Once embarked upon, such conflicts are not easily resolved by calls for all sides to cease hostilities immediately, uphold humanitarian law, protect the civilian population and resume talks to stop an expansion of the conflict, however desirable and necessary such steps are. Georgians, Russians and South Ossetians have been aggravating one another over recent months following the declaration of Kosovo independence and the Nato statement at its April summit that Georgia is entitled to eventual membership of the alliance. Russia explicitly warned that recognising Kosovo would have consequences in South Ossetia and Abkhazia, the other Russian-dominated enclave in Georgia. Georgian leader Mikhail Saakashvili has aggressively pursued Nato membership and was disappointed that it was in fact blocked by Germany and France in order not to offend Russia.
Other uncertainties arise from the political transition in Moscow and the US election, which may have tempted imprudent actions. The advice to cool it down as quickly as possible is valid, however difficult to implement, and should apply as much to wider interlocutors as local ones. Military action by Russia on the scale required to seize and hold the South Ossetia capital Tskhinvili against Georgian troops would be a major undertaking, whatever the provocation.
And if Mr Saakashvili thought he could stimulate US intervention in support of his efforts to regain South Ossetia, speed up Nato membership and better secure oil pipelines from the Caspian Sea by trying to seize control of Tskhinvili, he is likely to be mistaken. European Nato members will be much less willing to extend Georgia a security guarantee against Russia after this episode. The European Union and the Organisation for Security and Co-operation in Europe also have a clear interest in calming this conflict down.
A collective effort to do that under the auspices of the United Nations is urgently required over the weekend. It should involve an immediate ceasefire, talks on a withdrawal of troops, and efforts to encourage mediation and moderation on all sides. The alternative is an escalation of military action and political conflict with implications throughout the Caucasus region and beyond. While there is not the stomach for such a destabilising scenario elsewhere in Europe, it will be difficult indeed to resolve the damage already done by these military engagements without a much greater political effort to develop a long-lasting relationship with Russia.