Europe will throw away a vital opportunity to improve ties with Islam if Sarkozy and Merkel get their way, Lara Marlowewrites
A war of words between the Turkish prime minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan and the German chancellor Angela Merkel this week showed how seriously Turkey's relations with Europe have deteriorated.
"I repeat: assimilation is a crime against humanity," Erdogan told the Turkish parliament on February 12th. He enraged Merkel by saying the same thing to 20,000 Turks in Cologne two days earlier, at a rally for nine Turks who died in a fire in the German town of Ludwigshafen. Turkish media claim they were the victims of a racist crime.
Merkel questioned Erdogan's "understanding of integration" which she says requires "a willingness to adapt to a country's lifestyle".
The tiff with Germany over the integration of 2.7 million Turks comes as Erdogan's government has quietly shelved efforts to pursue the country's EU application. Rhetoric from the ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP) is increasingly nationalistic.
There is plenty of blame to go around, but the main cause of the chill in EU-Turkish relations has been the rise to power of Merkel in Germany and President Nicolas Sarkozy in France, both of whom are categorically opposed to Turkish accession.
EU countries which support Turkey's application - Ireland, Britain, Sweden, Spain - have watched passively as the Franco-German duo snuff out Turkish hopes. Turkey has been trying to join the EU for nearly half a century, but no one has explained to EU citizens what a huge contribution Turkey could make to the union. When the door is finally slammed in Turkey's face, alienating 71 million of the world's most prosperous, educated and progressive Muslims, it will be too late to cry over lost opportunities.
The most stubborn and strong-willed prevail in Europe, and Sarkozy has been allowed to set the agenda for negotiations with Turkey. "Turkey, which is not a European country, has no place within the European Union," he said last year.
Sarkozy decided to close five chapters of accession negotiations last summer, on the grounds that subjects like monetary union pre-suppose full membership. He dictated his terms for allowing two new chapters to be opened in December.
Sarkozy frequently evokes Europe's "Christian roots", but he forgets that Christianity started in the Middle East, not Europe. There was a substantial Christian community in Ephesus, Turkey, in the first century after Christ, when Europe was still populated by Barbarians. Saint Basil established the monastery system in Cappadocia, Turkey, between the 7th and 12th centuries.
Sarkozy and Merkel talk of a "privileged partnership" instead of full membership for Turkey. But Turkey already benefits from just such a partnership under the 1963 Ankara accord and the customs union of 1996. The Turks cannot be blamed for rejecting this attempt to fob them off with second-class membership.
The two most obvious arguments against Turkey often go unstated because they are politically incorrect. They are 1: Turkey is just too big, and 2: Turkey is Muslim. It is the combination that scares Europeans. Tiny Muslim Bosnia will probably be admitted to the EU.
But both arguments can be turned to Turkey's advantage. True, Turkey would eventually surpass Germany as the largest EU country. But the EU needs a young labour force to support its ageing population. If it wants to form a defence force, it needs soldiers. There are tensions within Turkey between secularists and Islamists, in particular over the new law allowing university students to wear the Islamic headscarf. But the presence of a vociferous secular minority is a guarantee that Turkey will not become a theocracy.
The AKP is trying to prove that Islam, democracy and modernity are compatible. By accepting Muslim Turkey in the European club, EU leaders would improve relations with their own Muslim minorities and show the world that the "Clash of Civilisations" is not inevitable, despite the US disaster in Iraq.
Turkish people define as European their desire to live in a consumer society that enjoys social justice and the rule of law. But there is deep frustration and a growing conviction that the EU keeps adding new criteria, that the entrance exam is skewed. Due to hurt pride, the number of Turks wanting to join the EU, like the number of Europeans who want to let them in, is falling.
For two weeks in December, France fought to keep the words "accession" and "membership" out of a statement on the EU's enlargement strategy. Paris won, over objections from Britain and Sweden.
Now Turkish pessimists predict that Sarkozy will bury Turkey's EU application once and for all during the French presidency in the second half of this year.
Optimists argue that Sarkozy will leave office in 2012 or 2017, that the pendulum could yet swing back in Turkey's favour.
Neither prospect is happy. If Sarkozy manages to sabotage nearly half a century of Turkish efforts to join Europe, the message conveyed to the world's 1.5 billion Muslims will be disastrous. Allowing the Turkish application to die a slow death is not much better.
"It is now possible to imagine Turkey becoming the first country to begin accession negotations but ultimately failing to join," writes Bulent Aliriza, the director of the Turkey project at the Centre for Strategic and International Studies in Washington.
Turkey should be required to fulfil the same criteria as other new members of the EU; not more. It is not acceptable, after leading Turkey on for 45 years, to say: "We never should have let you apply." There must be a European leader who is willing to stand up to Sarkozy and Merkel, to remind them that they are bound by their predecessors' decisions to give Turkey a fair crack at accession.
On the Turkish side too, much could be done. The flourishing economy that is Ankara's best argument looks likely to continue. But Turkey's leaders are so discouraged about the accession process that they have stopped trying. They can call the bluff of European detractors by resuming the reform process.
In particular, the government needs to ensure that changes in human rights legislation are enforced - that the infamous article 301 which makes "insulting Turkishness" a crime is abrograted, not merely amended. The country needs to examine what happened to the Armenians in 1915 in a sober, reasoned manner.
Erdogan has made progress in treatment of the Kurdish minority, but more remains to be done. The Cypriot issue could be resolved if Ankara encourages a settlement between the Turkish north and the Greek south within a European framework.
Last but not least, Turkey needs to state its case more effectively in a sustained public relations offensive at home and in Europe, especially in France and Germany. It is tempting to avoid those who treat you badly. But these are the people Turkey most needs to convince.
Lara Marlowe reported from Turkey for the "Inside Turkey" series of articles in The Irish Times in October 2007