The deadline for Iran to respond to the United Nations Security Council resolution on suspending its nuclear enrichment programme, if it is not to face further UN sanctions, passed yesterday with little indication of progress.
Iran refuses to suspend enrichment without reciprocal action, insisting it has the right to continue. If a dangerous escalation of tension is to be avoided, the potential for further diplomatic engagement with Iran must be explored. European states should take the initiative on this by linking it to wider Middle East issues.
Iran is entitled to develop nuclear energy under the Non-Proliferation Treaty of which it is a member, subject to inspection by the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) to validate that it is not creating the capacity for nuclear weapons. It has refused for several years to submit to full IAEA inspections and spun out the prolonged negotiations with the Security Council's European members to the point where their patience was finally exhausted last December 23rd, when Resolution 1737 was passed unanimously. That testifies to a remarkable consensus among the permanent members - including China and Russia, which are keen to avoid a major escalation with Iran.
Behind the technical facade there lies a deep geopolitical confrontation between Iran and the United States. The US is building up the military capacity to launch a pre-emptive attack on Iran's nuclear facilities. It accuses Iran of undermining its troops in Iraq and of sponsoring terrorism against Israel by its proxy movements Hamas and Hizbullah in Palestine and Lebanon. President Bush has consistently refused to involve Tehran in comprehensive diplomatic negotiations. Instead he is determined to keep its ruling regime under pressure and to deny it influence, notwithstanding the fact that Iran is the main regional beneficiary of the Iraq war. There are increasingly well grounded fears that Mr Bush is preparing the ground for another war against Iran.
That would be a disaster for the Middle East and the wider world - not least for the US. It can be prevented if the European states which have been in the forefront of negotiations with Iran over the last couple of years are prepared to take up some of the constructive ideas put forward recently to scale back tension on this issue.
IAEA director general Dr Mohamed ElBaradei has warned of the dangers involved, including the likelihood that military action against Iran would empower hardliners and undermine those who want a diplomatic solution. Instead Dr ElBaradei proposes a "time-out" in which both Iran's nuclear programme and UN sanctions would be suspended. Crucially this would happen simultaneously, rather than posing a unilateral condition which it is not possible for Tehran to accept without acknowledging political defeat. As with the recent Saudi initiative to broker a Fatah-Hamas Palestinian government, this deserves a positive response from European states, rather than the US and Israeli refusal to endorse it.