It has been a propitious week for the Belfast Agreement. A special party conference of Sinn Fein in Dublin on Sunday is expected, by at least a two-thirds majority, to allow party members take their seats in a new Northern Ireland assembly. Such changes represent an enormous political achievement for the leadership of Sinn Fein and, in particular, for Mr Gerry Adams and Mr Martin McGuinness. It has been a difficult and complex evolutionary process. It required intensive groundwork and consultation - going back for years - to swing the movement behind the political process.
The most recent phase in this exercise in political evolution dates from early March. At that time, Mr Adams outlined the party's thinking and dropped much of the hard-edged rhetoric of earlier years with its overwhelming emphasis on "Brits Out" and a United Ireland. Sinn Fein was "totally wedded to the search for a democratic peace settlement", he said. And that included recognition of a phased settlement.
Within months, Mr Adams and Mr McGuinness had accepted the Belfast Agreement at Stormont and had set about selling it to the party's rank and file. A two-day ardfheis in Dublin last month began that process. The IRA did not swing its support behind the agreement until an army convention endorsed the advances made by the leadership of Sinn Fein and - with a weather eye to its own militants - said there would be no decommissioning, other than on its own terms. At the extremes, it is now clear and it is confirmed by a report in this newspaper today, that there is some fissuring of the IRA. It remains to be seen how significant these dissident elements may be.
In advance of the weekend decisions, Mr Adams yesterday described the special conference as "historic" and a "watershed" for the movement. Perhaps more significantly, Mr McGuinness expressed confidence that the republican movement would remain united. And he warned those still involved in armed actions that they were doing a great disservice to themselves and to all the people of Ireland. They should, he said, recognise the great opportunity for constitutional and political change that existed at the moment.
Meanwhile, President Clinton has let it be known that he will not visit Northern Ireland in advance of the referendum on May 22nd. The United States has contributed enormously to the political settlement reached in Belfast and President Clinton's gesture simply adds to that fund of goodwill. The sensitivities of unionist voters to outside interference and the likelihood that Dr Paisley and his supporters would have represented the visit as part of a pan-nationalist plot might have generated a negative reaction. In that regard, even the joint "Vote Yes" campaign, engaged in by Tony Blair and John Major has been designed to reflect unified British sentiment, rather than challenge committed "No" voters. Votes in favour of the agreement by local councils in Northern Ireland, along with its endorsement by Sinn Fein next Sunday, will give further momentum to the "Yes" campaign. The evidence available at this stage would point to a substantial majority in favour of the agreement on both sides of the border.