Fair wind on global warming

It is very rare indeed in this fractious world for a large number of countries to agree on anything

It is very rare indeed in this fractious world for a large number of countries to agree on anything. Yet in Bali 187 members of the United Nations - large and small, rich and poor - adopted a mandate for a new, more intensive round of negotiations, with a two-year deadline, to reach agreement on deep cuts in the greenhouse gas emissions blamed for causing global warning.

And despite the fact that opposition from the Bush administration led to a specific target range of reductions being stripped from the "Bali Roadmap", it must be regarded as a significant step forward in coming to grips with what Al Gore has characterised as a "planetary emergency".

For the first time since the UN began convening annual conferences on the issue in 1995, everyone is now inside the tent, including the United States, which spurned the more limited Kyoto Protocol in 2001. Its chief negotiator, Paula Dobriansky, hailed the outcome of the 13th UN Climate Change Conference as opening "a new chapter in climate diplomacy" and even said that the US would work towards halving its own prodigious emissions by 2050. Minister for the Environment John Gormley, who headed Ireland's delegation, commented that where the world stands now in relation to global warming "would have been barely imaginable a year ago".

This seismic shift in international opinion has been driven by the alarming scientific evidence presented by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change in its Fourth Assessment, published earlier this year. Indeed, the Bali Roadmap accepts its findings that warming of the climate system is "unequivocal" and that delay in reducing emissions "increases the risk of more severe climate impacts". The final text also recognises that "deep cuts in global emissions will be required". These must be achieved primarily by developed countries, including the US and EU member states, but there is now a widespread expectation that major developing countries, such as China, will also contribute their fair share.

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In this context, it is to be regretted that the White House so quickly issued a statement saying that the Bush administration had "serious concerns" about key elements of the Bali Roadmap. It insisted that the new round of negotiations for which the roadmap provides the framework must proceed on the basis that major developing countries - which bear no historical responsibility for causing the build-up of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere - would have to agree to cap their emissions, thereby putting economic growth at risk.

One of the most heartening aspects of the Bali conference was the willingness of China - whose emissions, though enormous, are six times lower than the US on a per capita basis - to become actively engaged in the search for solutions. However, the most effective way to encourage China and other major developing countries such as India, Brazil and South Africa to find more environmentally sustainable growth paths is for developed countries, notably the US, to lead by example.