The electorate of the German state of Hesse - one of the richest and most sophisticated in the country - has delivered a sharp rebuke to the SPDGreen coalition there, which the national coalition consisting of the same parties seems politically bound to take seriously. A collapse of the Green vote, driven by doubts and disillusionment among its supporters about the government's record, combined with a resurgent Christian Democrat vote, buoyed by the campaign against proposed dual citizenship reforms, to produce this result. It reveals once again that nothing can be taken for granted in political affairs, in Germany or elsewhere.
Local and national factors were at play in the collapse of the Green vote. The outgoing Hesse coalition, in power for some eight years, had an uneven record, notably concerning its Green minister for justice, who antagonised many voters. On the left of the party there is considerable disenchantment with the Greens' record so far in the national coalition. The phasing out of nuclear power was a crucial issue for them; they have been sorely disappointed by the Chancellor Mr Schroder's decision to delay it after it came under heavy international and domestic criticism. There is also a feeling that the Green leader, Mr Joschka Fischer, has been too accommodating in his relations with Social Democrat leaders.
A more important factor was the Christian Democrat mobilisation of voters against the national coalition's proposed reform of Germany's citizenship laws. They date back to 1913 and make ancestry the main determinant of who is German. Thus Germans living abroad get full rights, while most children born to foreigners are denied them, even if they have never lived anywhere else but Germany. Despite some recent amendments to such stark inequities it took a determined effort by the Greens in the negotiation of this coalition to deliver amendments providing for a system of dual nationality.
They would enable as many as half the 7.3 million long-term residents who are not citizens to become Germans. The most important group of beneficiaries are the 2.1 million Turks who arrived decades ago as guest workers. They have been reluctant to take on German nationality even where they qualified, because they want to maintain personal and legal links with Turkey. The dual nationality proposals would allow them to keep them, while agreeing to swear allegiance to the German constitution.
The Christian Democrat leader, Mr Schauble, has gone along with an activist signature campaign directed against these reforms. It has attracted strong support from far-right groups and become the focus for a xenophobic mood among elements of the public. According to exit polls this played strongly in the Hesse campaign, giving the opposition a substantial boost. The result will strengthen the Social Democrat position within the coalition and probably shift the focus towards their preoccupations, such as employment policy. It would be regrettable if the principle of dual nationality were to be lost as a result, since it is the most rational approach to the subject and is fully compatible with the European vocation Mr Schroder insists is central to his government's overall policy.