The Government returned to work this week more nervous than ever before. Fianna Fáil Ministers and backbenchers have had several informal meetings in recent weeks.
According to one senior source they have concluded, possibly for the first time since 1997, that they are now in serious difficulties with the public.
August has a habit of hatching mini political crises. Ministers, backbenchers and the handlers who spend their time carefully managing the news agenda vanish en masse for the month. Incidents that might be seen as minor at other times of the year take off in the media, backbenchers respond, and before long, there is talk of crisis.
This August the return of the "Colombia Three" to Ireland led to terse rhetorical exchanges between the Coalition parties, even though there is no decision of substance looming that could divide the Cabinet. The phenomenon of the Eddie Hobbs Rip Off Republic programme brought some backbenchers out to suggest Ministers weren't doing enough to defend themselves. A newspaper report that private Fianna Fáil polls showed the party losing a dozen or more seats spread terror in the ranks.
The Ministers and backbenchers who have met in recent weeks identified the core problem as the erosion of the Coalition's image of competence. In the 2002 election, the core FF message was that they were competent, and the Opposition was not. But delays in decisions on issues such as Aer Lingus and Aer Rianta, the e-voting debacle, traffic gridlock, childcare shortages and health-service inadequacies all give an impression of incompetence. Fianna Fáil does more market research than any other party, and they know this is happening.
This comes as a real alternative government in the form of a Fine Gael-Labour alliance is taking shape, and as Sinn Féin remains poised to make further gains.
These factors have ended complacent talk within Fianna Fáil that it will all automatically come right. This is a significant advance, says the source, because it means they can agree to spend the next 18 months trying to turn things around.
So the Taoiseach and his Ministers spent some of the week pretending they weren't annoyed at the Eddie Hobbs programme. Party strategists have decided that, whatever backbenchers think, it would be politically foolish to take on a hugely popular programme that has reflected a public mood.
"He has put a major hole in our image of competence", says one Government source. Many in Fianna Fáil assert that it is competence, and not vision, that impresses modern voters.
So, over the next few months there will be a number of initiatives designed to deal with points raised by the Hobbs programme, rather than to attack the programme itself. The Minister for Enterprise will decide whether to modify or abolish the Groceries Order, prime target of Rip Off Republic. The Government's Consumer Strategy Group will begin to operate.
Internal sniping over the "Colombia Three" has created an impression of a lack of direction as well. There are no differences in substance between the Coalition parties on the Colombia issue, even though each party has been annoyed at the pose struck by the other.
The PDs are angry at what they see as Fianna Fáil's shoulder-shrugging acceptance that nothing can be done to jail or extradite the three. Fianna Fáil backbenchers for their part continued this week to express irritation at what they claim is PD posturing on the issue. They believe this is designed to appeal to the law-and-order constituency which the PDs and Fine Gael both seek to attract. Both parties were happy to put their contrasting postures on public view through August.
At various points since 1997 Fianna Fáil felt they could make mistakes and get away with it. But the real fear now arises from the fact that an alternative government is taking shape. Fine Gael and Labour have bound themselves together and suddenly, if people tire of this Coalition and want to flock to an alternative, there is one there for them.
To the great frustration of the Government parties, Fine Gael and Labour have made it clear they will not produce any joint statement of policy principles until close to the next election, or any detailed joint policies until after the election.
The Government's press machine is desperate for a target to attack, and the Opposition is determined to stick to generalities and not give it to them.
On Monday, Enda Kenny and Pat Rabbitte return to Mullingar, the site of the launch of their plans for a pre-election pact 12 months ago. The aim is to remind the public that there is indeed an alternative taking shape, and to give the Fianna Fáil people in Cavan a bit of a rattle.
Fianna Fáil's assault on the Opposition will begin on the same day. Mr Ahern is expected to repeat the old message that his party will not "take risks with the economy". This is code for the suggestion that the Opposition will damage the economy, either deliberately through insane policies, or accidentally through incompetence. Fianna Fáil has successfully associated itself with economic success and will continue to play up this issue.
The Taoiseach will demand to know what the alternative is proposing, and his Ministers and backbenchers will spend the next few months asking this question. Attack is the best form of defence, they reckon.
But Ministers have spoken, too, in the past few weeks of the importance of continuing to deliver decisions and changes in their areas.
"We can't run the campaign every day for 18 months. We are the Government and we have to get things done," says one senior source.
September, says another, will stabilise people, and Fianna Fáil has recovered from a much worse position before. At the equivalent point in time before the 2002 election, the Government was in the throes of the self-inflicted damage caused by the decision to appoint Hugh O'Flaherty to the Supreme Court before going on to the 2002 victory.
Early next week in Cavan, the paramount issue on backbenchers' minds will be the question of whether this Coalition will last its full term until summer 2007, or whether they should be preparing for an earlier election. Various events have suggested that the election is closer than it is: Fine Gael and Labour's coming together, selection conventions getting under way, and an outbreak of constituency profiles and predictions in the press, have all given a sense of momentum towards polling day.
But with Fianna Fáil needing a significant turnaround in the polls before risking a date with the voters, and the PDs concerned that several of their eight deputies are vulnerable, polling day is likely to be a long way off. For a coalition government, fear is great glue.