FG does its homework but real test lies ahead

Heading to the Green Glens exhibition centre in Millstreet, Co Cork, Fine Gael had a number of tasks to complete if it was to…

Heading to the Green Glens exhibition centre in Millstreet, Co Cork, Fine Gael had a number of tasks to complete if it was to advance its challenge to take power after the next election, writes Mark Hennessy, Political Correspondent

Policies had to be produced to answer the Government's charge that its ideas drawer is empty. And Enda Kenny's public performance, which has improved steadily, if slowly, since he took over the leadership, had to develop a further step.

All in all, Fine Gael, whose grassroots now possess a quiet confidence that the dark days of 2002 are behind them and are not coming back, can be pleased that it has achieved both limited objectives.

On the policy front, Fine Gael has clearly put in significant work on childcare, food and the health service to produce understandable, apparently affordable ideas that look like they could be delivered.

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Free GP care for under-fives would cost just €50 million. "It's typical of a series of things that don't in themselves cost a fortune but that would make a massive difference to the lives of thousands," said Jim O'Keeffe.

However, the best of the crop of ideas unveiled in Millstreet will long since have been harvested by the Government before the general election if there is merit in them, but, for now, that hardly matters.

More significantly, Fine Gael had to show there is some serious thinking going inside the ranks about what it would do if it won power. Complaining about the Government just won't be enough.

Enda Kenny's proposal to abandon compulsory Irish classes after Junior Certificate is an example of this, and shows a willingness to take some risks on delicate territory. His message is more complicated than just ending compulsion: he wants the existing curriculum to be binned and replaced with one enjoyable to students and centred on speaking skills.

Most voters will agree that much of past and present Irish education has been a mess, one that leaves most pupils unable to finish a sentence after 1,500 hours of tuition.

Students similarly trained in Russian would "be buying houses for you by the end of the month", Mr Kenny told a Fine Gael gathering in Cork City Hall on the eve of the Millstreet conference.

However, there is perhaps a central flaw in the idea: if compulsion is part of the problem, then why should students wait until after Junior Certificate before they have a choice?

Meanwhile, Fine Gael will tell voters that Taoiseach Bertie Ahern, despite his denials, is ready to do a coalition deal with Sinn Féin to stay in power after the next election.

Clearly, Fianna Fáil is worried that the mud might stick, as evidenced yesterday by the Taoiseach's decision to issue another full-scale denial of the charge to the Sunday Independent.

Such denials will cut little ice with Fine Gael. "Let's hear him deny it. Anyway, he can deny it as much as he wants. Who is going to believe that he wouldn't if the option was Opposition?" said one strategist.

Meanwhile, Mr Kenny has refused to offer copycat support for Mr Ahern's 1916 military parade next year, believing that his voters want nothing to do with a commemoration designed to protect Fianna Fáil from Sinn Féin.

The strategy to emphasise Sinn Féin's nearness to power, if it works, could hurt Fianna Fáil, but Fine Gael's own coalition options look far from secure given that Labour's fortunes, so far, show little sign of lifting.

Fine Gael has targeted 30 gains, though some of this optimistic goal would have to come from Labour unless Fianna Fáil's star simply implodes when voters come to cast their ballot.

The recognition of Labour's current weakness may have had much to do with Enda Kenny and Richard Bruton's blunt, if polite, refusal to consider raising personal, corporate or business taxes.

Labour does not want to do anything with the first two, but Pat Rabbitte has tried to keep room for manoeuvre open about the third, even if he has not outlined his preferred changes.

Meanwhile, the third leg of the Rainbow stool - the Greens - is open to attack in crucial bellwether rural constituencies such as Limerick West and Cork North West where Fine Gael must win two out of three.

In 1997, Fianna Fáil ruthlessly targeted Democratic Left and cut the support of farmers, who always tend to turn out, for Fine Gael by over 10 per cent during the campaign.

This time around, the Progressive Democrats may go out in front to attack the Greens if Fianna Fáil tries to keep an admittedly long each-way bet open that the Greens could be enticed later.

Undoubtedly, some of Fine Gael's problems could disappear if the Greens, before the election, nuance their planning and transport policies that do not wear well in rural Ireland.

Meanwhile, Fine Gael has other more immediate problems. Too many of the people at the podium on Saturday, such as Fergus O'Dowd and David Stanton, though worthy, are still barely known by the public at large.

Besides convincing the public in advance that it could command the numbers to run a stable government, Fine Gael must also show that it has the majority of a cabinet-in-waiting. That job is still not yet done.

And it must stop making the kind of basic errors that left nearly two hundred seats empty for Mr Kenny's keynote speech on Saturday night - a mistake just waiting to be cruelly exposed by the camera.