INSIDE POLITICS:The potential for reopening old wounds in Fine Gael is there with different factions backing contenders
THE STRANGEST presidential election campaign in the history of the State is now in full swing, with 10 candidates already in the field. The stakes are high for all of the parties and individuals involved.
Fine Gael probably has the most to lose if it gets it wrong. It became the biggest party in local government for the first time in 2009 and the biggest in the Dáil for the first time in February and so the presidency should be its for the taking.
Yet it is by no means certain Fine Gael can pull it off and there is even a danger that the party could do serious damage to its credibility if it runs the wrong kind of campaign. Labour, having won the presidency in 1990, will be judged on whether it can put up a good performance in a broken field, while Fianna Fáil has a serious decision to make about whether to contest the office at all. Mary McAleese and Mary Robinson have given the office of president a stature and a role in Irish public life that it did not possess in earlier decades. All of the candidates will be scrutinised on the basis that the winner will have to measure up to that high standard.
Fine Gael has only got around to taking the issue seriously in the past couple of weeks. Enda Kenny insisted the total focus was kept on the general election and, once that was out of the way, there was a widespread assumption in the party that former taoiseach John Bruton would be the candidate.
Only when Bruton firmly ruled out running did attention switch to the presidency. Leinster MEP Maireád McGuinness was the only one in the race until the former president of the European Parliament, Pat Cox, expressed an interest and made soundings about joining Fine Gael.
That prompted Dublin MEP Gay Mitchell to declare, much to the surprise of the party leadership. While Kenny says he is neutral, there is no doubt that some people close to the leader encouraged Cox into the field. During the general election campaign, Cox provided some background advice and allowed his name to be linked to the party as it sought to hoover up former PD voters.
The other side of the coin is that some of Mitchell’s strongest backers come from the ranks of those who tried to depose Kenny only a year ago. While he also has Kenny supporters, the potential for opening old wounds is there.
“There is every chance now that we will revert to type, have an all-out internal war and then run a disastrous campaign,” said one experienced party activist. The bottom line for Fine Gael is that the party’s electoral college, which will pick the candidate on July 9th, will have to make a judgment about which of the three has the best chance of winning.
Mitchell has been installed as the early favourite on the basis of his Fine Gael pedigree and the fact he has strong support in the parliamentary party. His appeal in Dublin and huge energy are pluses but he could struggle outside the capital.
A more serious worry is that Mitchell’s combative temperament, which has been a strength in adversarial politics, might not work in a presidential campaign. His attacks on his two rivals over the past week did not exactly hit the right note.
Cox, who formally declared yesterday, starts off with the most ground to make up. The charge that he has only joined Fine Gael to use the party as a vehicle to win the office will resonate with many party members. On the other hand, his electoral record is outstanding and his term as president of the European Parliament demonstrated that he knows how to handle himself on the big stage.
With divided views on Mitchell and Cox, it is very possible McGuinness could slip through the middle. She showed a formidable ability to campaign in two European elections and while she was not successful in her one attempt at the Dáil the same was true of both McAleese and Robinson.
In the Fine Gael electoral college, 70 per cent of the votes are wielded by the parliamentary party, 20 per cent by the party’s councillors and 10 per cent by the national executive. There will be lots of twists and turns over the next three weeks and it is not certain Cox can get the required number of TDs, Senators and councillors to nominate him.
The Labour Party will make its decision tomorrow with the 62 members of the parliamentary party and the national council coming to a decision in the Mansion House. Former party chairman and minister Michael D Higgins is fondly regarded in the party and would be a popular internal choice.
Fergus Finlay played a huge role in the success of Labour under Dick Spring and in Mary Robinson’s victory. His strategic political ability and work with Barnardos and in the media has earned him a high profile.
The bid of former senator Kathleen O’Meara came as a late surprise and she is not expected to win, although her transfers may well decide whether Higgins or Finlay gets the nomination. As with Fine Gael, the question is whether the decision will be made with the heart or the head.
As for Fianna Fáil, the party doesn’t seem to know what to do. The best internal candidate would probably be Éamon Ó Cuív. Unsullied by scandals or associations with dodgy bankers or developers, he would appeal to the party’s rural heartland and could prove transfer-friendly if he stayed in the race.
It is not clear whether one or more of the Independent candidates seeking nominations – Senator David Norris, Mary Davis, Seán Gallagher or Niall O’Dowd – will be able to get nominations. At this stage, Norris is the only one who looks like a serious contender but all of the controversy about his past statements will not have helped his prospects.