Fine Gael TDs and Senators meet today to chart another five years in opposition. Leo Varadkar, one of their newest and youngest TDs, explains what he thinks the party must do to win power
Five years ago, many political commentators wrote Fine Gael's obituary. Today, Fine Gael is resurgent following a successful general election where we gained 20 seats. The party's position as the main Opposition is secure.
Nonetheless, Fine Gael is no closer to government than it was 10 years ago. I was three-years-old in 1982 when we were last elected to government. Fine Gael remains unable to break out of the 23-29 per cent rut in which it has been stuck since then.
There are two schools of thought within Fine Gael about the future of the party. The first contends that winning the next election is just a matter of staying the course. This analysis holds that Fine Gael and Labour were only a few thousand votes short of winning the extra seats needed to form a government.
Although statistically correct, this works both ways. A few thousand votes the other way and Fianna Fáil would be governing alone. We made the mistake of adopting this faulty analysis after the 1997 general election. We cannot afford to make it again.
The second school argues that Fine Gael needs to undergo a political transformation in order to gain power. The form and colour of this transformation has yet to be debated.
Fine Gael should and could have won the 2007 election. There was a discernible mood for change and a genuine alternative government on offer. Nevertheless, for the first time in recent history, we actually lost support during the campaign.
Fine Gael entered the election with poll ratings of 29-31 per cent but ended up with 27.3 per cent. By the end of campaign, Fianna Fáil was well ahead among those who had made up their mind in the closing days.
Why were we unable to capitalise on the mood for change?
Enda Kenny undoubtedly demonstrated immense passion, stamina and ability. As a first-time Dáil candidate this was clearly evident on his many visits to my constituency of Dublin West. On the ground, the Fine Gael local organisations worked extraordinarily well. The national campaign was professionally run and was an organisational triumph. This was not enough.
We did not win the policy debates. We showed an unwillingness to take clear positions. We did not demonstrate competence to run the economy.
When our policies came under scrutiny we were, on occasion, unable to stand over our own promises - how and when would we deliver medical cards for every child under five; who would benefit most from our tax policies; how would we deliver 2,000 extra beds; whether the 2,000 extra gardaí were really extra at all etc?
On other key issues we did not comprehensively research our policies as we should have done. In health, we promised to stall the Government's reforms including the need to re-configure and centralise hospital services. We abandoned our 2002 commitment genuinely to reform our health services by introducing universal health insurance.
On tax, we concentrated on the narrow issue of stamp duty and abandoned imaginative plans for a 30 per cent income tax rate for middle earners. On education we were unable to make a commitment on class sizes. On housing, transport and planning, our proposals were published too late and did not put clear blue water between the alternative governments.
For many voters, Fine Gael and Labour did not give sufficient reason to risk a change of government. In this context, thousands of voters took the decision to vote for the devil they knew in the closing days of the election campaign.
The election result also reveals a growing regional disparity for the party. Fine Gael did extraordinarily well in Connacht. This was due to a large extent to the personal popularity of Enda Kenny. We also did very well in Munster. However, in Leinster we gained only three seats, none of which were at the expense of Fianna Fáil. Meanwhile, in Dublin the election of 10 deputies disguised a relatively poor vote of 18.7 per cent compared with 22.3 per cent in 1997.
Here lies the real dilemma for Fine Gael: it did so well in Connacht and Munster that the prospect of further gains is limited. However, there is a clear potential to make more than 10 gains in Dublin, Leinster and Cavan-Monaghan. To do this, we will have to embrace urban and suburban Ireland, adopt a more modern cosmopolitan image and develop policies that will appeal to the hundreds of thousands of uncommitted swing voters in cities, county towns and commuter belts across Ireland.
Fine Gael will have to look like modern Ireland. This means finding candidates who will attract women voters, suburbanites, the urban working-class voters and policy-driven voters.
As the party meets in Galway today, we can justifiably be proud of the work we have done over the past five years in re-establishing the party as the unrivalled major party of Opposition, particularly in terms of organisation. We can be satisfied and confident with Enda Kenny's leadership into the future.
Our mission must now be to make Fine Gael the major party of government for the 21st century. To do this, we must concentrate on policy and image rather than organisation and leadership.
Leo Varadkar TD is Fine Gael TD for Dublin West. This commentary is written in a personal capacity