Publicly, Fianna Fáil is cautious. Privately, the party cannot believe its luck, writes Mark Hennessy, Political Correspondent
Usually, early morning sessions at an ardfheis of most major political parties are shy of numbers, as delegates leave their beds late after a night of partying. On Saturday, however, Fianna Fáil's first debates had hundreds listening as Ministers lambasted the Opposition, and laid out an electoral stall for next year's election.
The attendance figures were helped by the ardfheis being cut to a one-day affair, but most importantly, they were helped because confidence levels in the party are so high. And Fianna Fáil, for now, has much to be happy about.
Taoiseach Bertie Ahern now has near cult-like status within the ranks, following his triumphant emergence from the controversy caused by the disclosure that he had received loans from friends and gifts from strangers in the early 1990s.
Just two months ago, most senior party figures would have expected that the Government would be on the ropes for much of the Dáil's autumn/winter session, and dependent on the budget and other factors to get them back into the game early in the new year.
Now, however, the dynamic has changed. Fine Gael and Labour heads have begun to droop, while the Government is not under pressure in the Dáil. For now, it has the ball instead of chasing it. In politics, confidence is the key. With it, everything is possible. Without it, nothing is. The Exchequer figures are good, the National Development Plan is to be published next year, pensions and social welfare payments will jump appreciably just weeks before voters go to the polls, while hopes that Northern Ireland is on the verge of a return to local political institutions will boost Mr Ahern's image as a statesman.
Put together, those advantages offer Fianna Fáil the chance to regain momentum even if events start to pull away from them in the coming months, which is, perhaps, inevitable given that no "purple patch" in politics ever lasts long.
Equally, Mr Ahern's confidence that the payments controversy has rebounded to his benefit was evident in the brevity of the reference he made to it in his main speech when he said he was "proud of his record and grateful for the chance" to serve.
However, his confidence is mixed with bitterness, as he showed only too clearly in his TV3 The Political Party interview yesterday when he accused The Irish Times of trying to "bury" him.
Nevertheless, the election battle has still to be fought. Even the current poll ratings, though far above where the party stood just a few months ago, would see Fianna Fáil losing seats, particularly if it failed to get the extraordinary seat bonus it enjoyed in 2002.
Throughout the ardfheis, one Minister after another emphasised that the party is ready for another term, and that they will go before voters seeking support for what the party will do, rather than on what it has done.
Though the same Ministers were quick to attack Fine Gael, they reserved the majority of their firepower for Labour, and particularly for Pat Rabbitte.
The focus on Labour was not a coincidence. Instead, it was carefully orchestrated. Indeed, one Minister privately said he had been to told "to lay off" Fine Gael and concentrate on Labour.
The strategy is based on a number of factors. Firstly, there is a swing vote out there that will plump next time for either Fianna Fáil or Fine Gael as the central pillars of any new administration.
Some of those voters may shy away from Fine Gael, Fianna Fáil believes, if they are convinced that a Fine Gael/Labour government would raise taxes, particularly if Mr Rabbitte was to take command of the Department of Finance, regardless of how many times Mr Rabbitte says he will not do so. "If you vote Labour taxes will go up - unless, of course, Labour goes into power with Fianna Fáil," joked one Munster TD late on Saturday evening as smokers gathered in the chilly night air outside the ardfheis.
The strategy is curious because Labour could be Fianna Fáil's main hope of staying in office depending on how the figures work out, but understandable if one accepts the argument that many in Labour are becoming increasingly worried about the party's poor opinion poll ratings, its close relationship with Fine Gael, and the antipathy that exists towards Mr Rabbitte from more than a few of his parliamentary party.
The assaults on Labour, if continued right up until polling day, will be easy for Fianna Fáil to forget afterwards if the arithmetic demands a change of tack, especially if neither Mr Rabbitte, nor Liz McManus are around as leader or deputy leader.
The same goes for the Greens, should the numbers require it, though it is much more doubtful that this party, which has been doing well in recent times, would be able to swallow an alliance with Fianna Fáil, particularly since it is clear that Fianna Fáil will focus ruthlessly on them to cut into Fine Gael's support base in rural constituencies, just as they did in 1997 when it targeted Democratic Left.
However, observers thought the same course was an impossibility back in 1992 about Dick Spring after Labour had won 33 seats. They were proven wrong then.
The central plank of Fianna Fáil's election campaign, first voiced at the Fianna Fáil parliamentary party meeting in Westport in September, is now clear: that continued economic prosperity is not inevitable, and that it will be put at risk by a change of government.
Though they could play both ways, future interest rate increases affecting hundreds of thousands of homebuyers could feed into this picture of the more cautious voter, fearful of change.
Ever careful, Mr Ahern yesterday played down the belief that Fianna Fáil are on a roll, saying that he was "far from happy" about the party's position.
The caution is well founded. Unlike every other political party leader, Mr Ahern can reasonably hope to have options once voters have declared their hand. But November 2006 is not May 2007. Much can still go wrong to upset the best-laid plans.