The third anniversary of the invasion of Iraq led by the United States finds opinion there and throughout the world profoundly divided about the war and how Iraq should be governed. There has been a decisive shift in US public opinion against the war and people are increasingly in favour of withdrawing. In Iraq, the long impasse about forming a government following the elections has heightened debate on whether it is already wracked by civil war or slowly regaining its capacity for self-rule. Its future will be determined by the ability of the central government to withstand pressure from the Kurdish north and Shia south for an increased autonomy which could break the country apart.
Along with decisions on whether US-led coalition troops should stay or withdraw, all these issues are coming to a head in coming months. This is a complex set of circumstances, that defies easy solutions. It does not necessarily follow from the growing feeling that the war was wrong in the first place that the troops should be rapidly withdrawn. But there is a growing realisation in the US that they are now a part of the problem and an increasing provocation for the resistance. As the November mid-term congressional elections loom, Republicans are more and more divided over whether to dissociate themselves from President Bush, who this week took a determined initiative to defend his record. It is an uphill task in the face of the growing belief among voters that he is incompetent, that the war was misconceived and that a credible exit strategy is lacking.
Mr Bush and his supporters insist that a US withdrawal would undermine its position on nuclear weapons proliferation with Iran, its role as a guarantor of Middle East stability and its credibility as a supporter of Muslim reformers. Mr Bush refused this week to contemplate any timetable for withdrawal, saying this would signal a victory for terrorism. But the fact that these arguments are being adduced so strongly reveals the growing pressure on the administration. Conservative critics of how the war was handled advise Europeans against taking pleasure in Mr Bush's discomfort, warning that a wounded or defeated nationalism in America would see the US retreat into a protectionist isolationism that would damage the West as a whole.
An even more turbulent Middle East following a sudden withdrawal or a break-up of Iraq would be equally dangerous. So far one of the main beneficiaries of the Bush administration policy has been Iran - a remarkable example of the unintended consequence of an ill-advised action. It is too soon to say which of these scenarios will come to pass. There is still time for a strong Iraqi government to emerge that could negotiate the terms for withdrawal of occupying troops and begin to deliver on basic governing tasks throughout the country.
Three years after the invasion, international policy should be geared towards that objective.