The 3,000 fires raging in Greece over the last fortnight have left 65 people dead, destroyed 495,000 acres of forest, olive groves and scrubland and are likely to result in compensation claims of at least €1.2 billion. The fires are reportedly the worst for over 100 years and certainly since detailed records were started in the 1950s.
Already the political fallout is huge as general elections loom on September 16th and accusations of incompetence, conspiracy, arson and corruption are thrown around. Some explanations are certainly called for. This extreme weather event can be seen as part of a pattern throughout Europe, around the Mediterranean and elsewhere in the world this year - including in Ireland. The World Meteorological Organisation has linked these events to global warming, although it cautions that particular cases like this are not necessarily caused by climate change. Greece is, after all, naturally prone to wildfires and they vary greatly from year to year. In such a climate they have positive as well a negative effects in that they help to clear the land for fresh growth, thus preventing even worse fires as a result of denser ground cover.
But since these are the worst fires in living memory it seems plausible to link them to climate change, as prime minister Kostas Karamanlis has done. This must remain a strong hypothesis rather than an assumed fact until the relevant scientific research is carried out. If it proves to be the case many lessons need to be drawn. In the short term it may help Mr Karamanlis to blame climate change if it reduces his government's responsibility for the disaster. Looking ahead there is no room for complacency, and the issue of incompetent management of this crisis is anyway forced upon him by the election campaign. Successive governments have failed to respond effectively to a recurrent threat, as a growing number of environmental protest marchers are proclaiming.
Aside from climate change there are several reasons to suspect private interests also have a hand in this catastrophe. Property developers gain when forest land is released for building when it is reclassified as agricultural following a fire. The lack of a land and forest registry, poor implementation of national regulations, an absence of proper planning and local corruption see to that. But it is far-fetched to heap all the blame on them, since many of the fires occurred in remote and poor areas. The long queues there and elsewhere for generous compensation payments will feed into the election campaign. There is as yet little evidence for wilder allegations that the arson attacks have been politically motivated from the Socialist opposition or terrorist groups.