Thankfully, today’s summit is taking place in a less fevered atmosphere than December’s. There does not seem to be the same “bull in a china shop” approach which gripped the leaders of some of the larger countries and caused despair to anyone who believes in the ideal of countries working together to tackle their problems.
The text for the fiscal treaty should be agreed and leaders will probably hold press conferences talking about how it marks some form of great move forward. Unfortunately, the reality is that nothing being discussed today addresses the underlying causes of the sovereign debt crisis. The speeches will be full of talk about jobs, but not a single proposal before them will address Europe’s escalating jobs crisis.
The fact is that the lack of fiscal controls was not the cause of this crisis and strengthening them will not solve it. If you take only Ireland’s case, we would have fully complied with the new treaty every year until the crisis began.
In spite of how serious the crisis is, the debate on this pact has been the worst of any Europe-related treaty. From the moment the treaty was announced, the basic strategy of the Government has been to focus on whether or not the people need to be consulted and not on looking for a deal capable of restoring stability and growth.
The text before the summit does not represent the implementation of December’s deal.
For all of the fighting in December about the place of existing European Union treaties and institutions, existing treaty law will remain fully in force. The draft treaty explicitly states that the whole issue of real change is being kicked down the road – with a target for doing something within five years.
As drafted, it is a minimalist pact which does little more than put a small amount of extra enforcement behind policies which are already incorporated in EU regulations.
The treaty’s fiscal targets are those which were agreed last year and finalised in a regulation which came into force in November.
Some groups are talking about how this pact is revolutionary and dangerous. This is nonsense. As drafted it is a tokenistic effort which entrenches already agreed policies but fails completely to address the causes of the crisis.
Various parties and individuals have already started a competition for who can get to the High Court fastest when the Government tries to ratify the treaty through the Oireachtas. Just as the Government’s main interest is avoiding a vote, these groups’ main interest is to have something to campaign against.
There have been at least eight treaties between member states which have not required a referendum. For example, the 2003 Accession Treaty included amendments which were agreed for Ireland in response to the Nice vote.
If the final draft of the treaty actually does something significant which goes beyond the principles of what has already been passed in a referendum, then let us have a referendum and not be afraid to make a pro-EU case.
Instead of being afraid of the people, the Government should make sure that something emerges which is worth voting on.
As things stand, the problem with this treaty is not that it does too much, it is that it does nothing about the real causes of this crisis. In particular it completely ignores the policies required to return growth and job creation to Europe.
There are three specific measures which should immediately be put on the agenda.
The first, and most significant, is the need to change the mandate and policy of the European Central Bank. At a minimum the bank should be given a mandate to target economic growth as well as low inflation. As part of this it should be allowed to buy sovereign bonds in the primary market instead of the ridiculous indirect lending that is under way which is reducing bond yields in the short term but is unlikely to provide respite beyond the next few months.
Second, before trying to set up a fiscal union the leaders should agree to establish a significant fund to assist countries in facing major economic shocks. Control without transfers is not a fiscal union – it is a recipe for stagnation.
This was understood by former president of the European Commission Jacques Delors when he pushed for cohesion funding, but appears to have been forgotten by those who think that growth can come without investment.
As part of an increased EU budget, leaders should agree to significantly increase funding for employment creation in the worst-affected countries. The reason why people here and elsewhere grew in their respect for the union was how it played a major role in tackling unemployment in the past.
Finally, we need leaders to signal that they will no longer tolerate the fracturing of the union and the arrogant behaviour of a few who are more concerned with domestic opinion polls than the worst economic crisis since the 1940s.
The “shut up and sign” approach to negotiations is a betrayal of the spirit of the union and it would not have been tolerated by Irish leaders or the leaders of any small countries in the past.
This situation has been made worse by the timidity of Taoiseach Enda Kenny and others who have failed to build alliances or bring forward an alternative agenda.
All 27 members have rights which must be respected. Equally, the principle of trying to move everything forward collectively, rather than in groups, is needed now more than ever.
If all that emerges from this summit is an agreement to plough on regardless with the policies which have already failed, then every country will lose out.
Fiscal controls are required but they are not the answer. It is only when confidence in Europe’s ability to take bold and creative action is restored that the crisis will be overcome.
Micheál Martin TD is the leader of Fianna Fáil