Next month young Catholics may have to make a decision on whether they want to be part of the new Police Service of Northern Ireland. The current political horse-trading will determine how many nationalists will be prepared to embark on such a career.
In the meantime, says the RUC Chief Constable, Sir Ronnie Flanagan, "needs must" is the factor compelling him to get on with the business of establishing the new service. If he doesn't start recruiting soon, his force will be depleted to a dangerously low level. And so vacancies for Catholics and Protestants to join the new force on a 50:50 recruitment basis should start appearing in the press next month.
The British Prime Minister, Tony Blair, is to meet David Trimble, Seamus Mallon and Gerry Adams in London today. The drive is on for what is being termed a "maximum deal". As well as new sequencing on demilitarisation and putting IRA arms beyond use, this also involves bringing Sinn Fein into the loop on policing.
That appears incredibly ambitious considering that Sinn Fein has been calling for a major overhaul of the Police Act, and the belief in London, Dublin, and even in SDLP circles that that is unlikely to happen. Yet Mr Blair is considering new proposals from Mr Adams that could require revisiting the legislation.
In broad terms, Sinn Fein is demanding greater powers for the watchdog policing boards and a liberal facility for inquiries into past actions of the RUC.
At RUC headquarters at Knock, in east Belfast, Sir Ronnie spoke to me yesterday about reforming the police. He sat relaxed and in civvies inside his main office, a large room with dark leather furniture. Behind his desk was a closed-circuit TV monitor which broadcast the message: ALL QUIET - the way the chief constable wants to keep it.
Negotiations were a matter for the politicians, he said. If the impasse was centrally about Sinn Fein seeking greater powers of accountability and scrutiny, then he had no great problem.
But if Sinn Fein was seeking to compromise his "operational responsibility" then that was something he couldn't countenance, he added. His good friend Garda Commissioner Pat Byrne wouldn't be expected to hand over such a central operational power and neither should he, observed the Chief Constable.
"You can never have too much consultation, but you cannot have direction and control handed over. I am not against accountability and scrutiny as long as it does not inhibit the ability of police officers to do their job," said Sir Ronnie.
Such a view may provide some room for manoeuvre as Mr Blair attempts to establish if Sinn Fein can be persuaded to accept or at least acquiesce in the police reform package.
Sir Ronnie said he had no idea if these political negotiations could lead to the greater ambition of having Sinn Fein, as well as the SDLP, endorse or tolerate the police changes. But, he wondered, could a position be reached whereby Sinn Fein might at least say: "Let's give this a chance?"
THE Chief Constable believes that the requirements set out by the SDLP are being met. Seamus Mallon has made seven demands on issues such as the closure of Gough barracks, the Special Branch, and the disbandment of the full-time reserve and the expansion of the part-time reserve.
Most difficulty surrounds his call for independent inquiries into the killings of Pat Finucane, Robert Hamill, and Rosemary Nelson. "This is a matter for government," said Sir Ronnie. "But if it decides that inquiries are appropriate then of course it will get nothing but utter co-operation in the inquiries. The only caveat is that I would see a great risk of compromise to ongoing investigations if such inquiries were launched before those investigations were completed."
In relation to the Patten Report's concern about the Special Branch being a "force within a force", Sir Ronnie said the branch will become a more open element of the new force, and added that the new Regulation of Investigatory Powers Act requires that it be open to external scrutiny. "That is an important change," he stressed.
"With effect from April 1st I am determined that Special Branch will be brought under the command of an assistant chief constable, responsible for criminal investigation. He will direct their intelligence-gathering activities."
The Chief Constable said he had started the restructuring process. A total of 29 new police districts are being created. He hoped to start advertising for recruits as early as next month. In addition, a human rights/criminal justice department was being established, and posts of civilian director of communication, and a director of communications, are being advertised.
Disbanding the full-time reserve and expanding the part-time reserve will happen, but not at present because of severe understaffing. Under the Patten severance arrangements, 500 officers, many top-ranking, are leaving by April. A further 700 will go in the next financial year, which does not include natural wastage of about 360 per year. And neither does this account for about 1,500 officers who had left the RUC by October last year.
He is losing 51 out of 180 chief superintendents and superintendents. Even at the senior assistant chief constable level - where there are normally eight posts - he will lose three officers in March. One already left in October, another is being seconded to the UN, another will retire in December and another in May next year.
As regards the watchtowers in South Armagh, the Chief Constable can see opportunity for movement. Were the IRA to reduce its operational capability through additional measures to put its arms beyond use, then there could be a reciprocal movement on the British army posts.
But he warned there must be no complacency about the dissident republican threat, especially from the "Real IRA" and especially considering its recent foiled bomb attacks.
The Chief Constable expressed confidence that his officers would weather and come to accept the changes. "Now, when you have a policing service who has delivered to the public despite such losses, I have no doubt they can certainly cope with the challenges brought about by the changes involved in implementing the Patten recommendations.
"That all demonstrates an absolute commitment on our part to embrace change. We are not just ready to embrace change, we are well embarked on the process."