Contradictory signals yesterday from the Iranian authorities about the fate of the eight British Royal Navy sailors arrested for allegedly violating its territorial waters give an insight into conflicting currents within Iran's governing regime.
After prosecutions were announced by the Revolutionary Guards who arrested them, sources in the Iranian foreign ministry and armed forces indicated they could be released soon if investigations show their incursion was not ill-intended. There is a tussle between elements wanting to reinforce Iranian isolation and sovereignty, against those who prefer to improve relations with neighbours and potential international partners.
Such tensions recall Iran's conflicting responses recently on a much more serious subject - whether its domestic nuclear power programme is being used as a screen behind which to manufacture nuclear weapons. Last week Britain, France and Germany sponsored a highly critical resolution against Iran at the International Atomic Energy Authority board, which influenced it to say Iran has broken its promise to disclose its plans to IAEA inspectors. The three states have supported a policy of constructive engagement with Iran on this subject, rejecting the United States policy of warnings and sanctions.
Following elections earlier this year, the political balance between reformists and fundamentalist elements changed in favour of the latter. This shift is reflected in the arrest of the eight seamen as much as in the jostling over nuclear inspections. But it looks as if the Iranian leadership is determined not to be deflected from its nuclear programme irrespective of international criticism. Another recent report, from the European Union, accused Iran of torturing opponents in its prisons, lacking an independent judiciary and using the death penalty. The hostile reaction to it from Tehran reveals an intolerance of external and internal critics and an increased confidence to go its own way in an unstable region dominated by the conflict and political transition in Iraq. The Shatt al-Arab water border where the British sailors were arrested is extremely sensitive and vital for oil exports and trade.
However the naval arrests are resolved, international relations with Iran will assume greater importance in coming months. Its refusal to co-operate with the IAEA will reopen the policy debate on how to respond. Iran is an important player politically, strategically and economically in the Middle East region, whose policy divisions and conflicts have been obscured by the Iraq crisis over the last year.