There's a rule of thumb in Northern Ireland journalism, a dictum that has passed from one reporter to another as they enter the grey, ugly Stalingrad-style building that houses the Belfast office of The Irish Times, and it is this: be pessimistic, writes Gerry Moriarty.
It applies specifically to efforts to get a steady fix on the political landscape here. Generally the view is blurred. Usually the best analysis of the way ahead is to quote the favourite saying of Moleskin Joe, a character in some of Donegal writer Patrick MacGill's books, "There's a better time coming ... but we'll not see it."
But constant pessimism is no way to lead a life. The best moments in Northern Ireland were when people acted generously, when they stepped out of the comfort and safety of their own constituency and parleyed, traded and dealt with the other.
The most inspiring moments of course were the republican and loyalist ceasefires and Good Friday 1998. Since then though completing the architecture of the Belfast Agreement has seemed as arduous, long and fraught as the erection of Gaudi's still unfinished cathedral in Barcelona - and that's been going on for 121 years.
Pessimists aren't expecting too much from the current talks. The middle or near end of next week is viewed as a deadline for some sort of result, although based on the patterns of previous high-wire negotiations, that could be put back to the end of October, which at the latest might allow for late November or early December elections instead of mid-November, the current poll target.
At the moment we are facing one of three outcomes: no deal, a deal or half a deal.
If the talks break down and there is nothing forthcoming from the IRA, that would mean Tony Blair having to decide whether to call elections. Without a deal it would be easier for him to again postpone the Assembly poll. In such a situation that might suit David Trimble, until the next heave at least.
A deal would involve the IRA signing up to paragraph 13 of the Hillsborough joint declaration pledging to give up all paramilitary activity or providing words that indicate as much.
With such a deal David Trimble could have absolutely no excuse for not going back into an executive with Sinn Féin. Indeed, with such a deal Jeffrey Donaldson would have no excuse either, but he might find one.
The most likely outcome at this stage appears to be half a deal where the IRA would carry out a more credible act of decommissioning, backed by some strangulated language suggesting that it will, would, could, should, might go out of business.
It probably would be convincing for nationalists but for many unionists it would be interpreted as nothing but the usual forked tongue from republicans. That would probably be sufficient to trigger elections to a new negotiating process rather than to an executive, but what then? Republicans may have a genuine reason for not fully signing up to paragraph 13. The IRA is in wind-up mode, but whether unionists or the governments like it or not, that transformation from army to old-soldiers organisation must proceed at its own funereal pace, seems to be the current position of the republican leadership.
In the meantime, there is relative peace and it is generally getting better, so why force the pace when that could blow the engine. There is some merit in the argument but, unionists and some nationalists ask, why must everything be stalled by the needs of republicans who continue to hold a metaphorical and literal gun to the head of politics here? Are Adams and McGuinness the leaders or are they not?
Some republicans tell me that there is a body of IRA troops on the ground, the foot-soldiers, NCOs and middle-rankers, who just aren't prepared to give up the cachet and power that membership of the IRA entails in nationalist towns and villages and in urban working-class republican areas.
You also hear, and this is a line pushed by David Trimble, that some IRA members in Border areas, especially south Armagh, including at least one at army council level, are not prepared to abandon the huge proceeds from smuggling. But you have to remind yourself of what the A in IRA stands for. Army, of course, and surely no self-respecting army - and the IRA has a lot of respect for itself - wants to be dubbed a criminal outfit.
So can the pessimists be confounded? Yes, but only if the IRA and Sinn Féin are prepared to act generously. For this to work, Ulster Unionists must also be generous in agreeing to work the institutions but republicans hold the trump card. They are in a win-win situation. Do a deal and the pro-agreement wing of unionism has a future and Sinn Féin is back in government, possibly with a deputy first minister or even first minister running the executive (now that would test the big-heartedness of unionists). Half a deal or no deal and the DUP could wipe the board with the Ulster Unionists in the poll, even with Trimble hardening his position on the agreement.
Republicans, who are long-game experts, could live with that as well. If this does not work, then Sinn Féin can just shrug its shoulders and say: "Doesn't this just prove what we have said all along, that unionism is irreformable: bring on joint sovereignty or heaven knows how the army will respond."
Generosity is the key - but are Gerry and Martin feeling generous? Why is that "be pessimistic" maxim hovering in view. But to hell with bah, humbuggery. Go on, Gerry and Martin, surprise us.