The German Chancellor-elect, Mr Gerhard Schroder, has gone to some lengths to emphasise that the change in government will not herald any fundamental change in his country's foreign policy. Changes of nuance rather than of substance have been signalled - even if the parliamentary leader of the Greens, Mr Joschka Fischer, is appointed foreign minister. Mr Schroder, despite some earlier scepticism, is now fully committed to the EMU project and to the process of European integration. The message from Bonn is that - no less than Dr Kohl - he wants to see Germany anchored in the New Europe.
Policy-makers here will be relieved if Mr Schroder remains true to his word. Germany, in close alliance with France, has been the driving force in the process of European integration in the past two decades. It has also been a good friend to countries like Ireland. Germany's generous contribution to structural and CAP funding is well known and acknowledged in this State. Less well known is the manner in which, during the Kohl era, Germany was protective and understanding of the needs of the smaller states like Ireland across a broad range of policy areas and institutional questions.
Despite the promised continuity in policy, it would be surprising if there was not some nervousness in Government circles about the end of the Kohl era. The fear is that Mr Schroder may be more pragmatic and less visionary than Dr Kohl in terms of European policy. Certainly, it seems likely that the new Germany will be more inward-looking than in the recent past. With four million jobless, Mr Schroder will have to embark on a radical programme of reform designed to cut employment costs. The Green influence in government will mean that environmental issues will gain a new priority.
What all of this will mean at the negotiating table in Brussels is another question. There is some concern that Dr Kohl's complaints about the "unfairness" of Germany's contribution to the EU budget - dismissed as pre-election bluster - could be pursued by the new government. If so, this could have serious implications for Ireland as negotiations on the next phase of structural funding for 2000-2006 begin shortly. Concerns have also been raised that the new Red/Green alliance, which is in no sense beholden to the farming community, will be less protective of the farm lobby in the CAP and Agenda 2000 discussions and more willing to give ground in the next round of world trade negotiations. It may be that some if not all of these concerns are exaggerated. It seems unlikely that the new government will adopt an aggressive stance on budgetary contributions and other issues in the run-in to next year's German presidency of the EU. The reality is that the EU, on the eve of EMU, the next phase of enlargement and the next round of structural fund negotiations is, in any case, set for a period of radical change. For all that, Irish ministers, officials and diplomats will be anxious to ensure that the mutual understanding that has characterised relations between Dublin and Bonn is maintained. Given the diplomatic and trading importance of Ireland's links with Germany, it is to be hoped that the Taoiseach, Mr Ahern, will meet the Chancellor-elect at the earliest opportunity.