There should be no surprise at the alternating expressions of elation and apprehension which have followed the signing of the Good Friday agreement at Stormont. The initial euphoria had hardly worn off when intimations of rejection and revolt began to emanate from both unionist and republican quarters. Those who put together this complex blueprint for accommodation now have to defend it against the would-be saboteurs.
That will mean different things in different theatres. Last evening's release of prisoners from Portlaoise is a gesture from the Government towards the republicans who will converge for the Sinn Fein Ardfheis this weekend. The influence of prisoners, both loyalist and republican, has been vital in securing the necessary support for the agreement. It is now important that the authorities are seen to reciprocate. A quid pro quo is called for, not least in order to consolidate the stance of the Sinn Fein leadership this weekend.
It is likely that the ardfheis will endorse the agreement, for all that there will be dissonant voices and that sinister elements appear to be at work on the extremes of the Provisional movement. Perhaps more problematic is the mood in unionism. The Ulster Unionist leader, Mr David Trimble, faces an important test when the party's 800-strong council meets in Belfast on Saturday. While the hostility of the Rev Ian Paisley's DUP and Mr Robert McCartney's UK Unionists has been as expected, what is more disquieting has been the limited expression of support for the agreement from what might be viewed as the middle ground of mainstream unionism. Very few of those who would describe themselves as moderates among the unionist population, and who recognise the need for accommodation, have been prepared to express themselves over recent days.
It can be taken for granted that the Orange Order and other loyal institutions will come out against the agreement. Indeed, it would almost be an intellectual impossibility for them to approve of it, however much individual members might recognise it as a reasonable settlement after years of conflict. And yet, in the Apprentice Boys' orderly and responsive attitude to the Ormeau Road re-routing at the weekend, it is possible to identify a spirit of constructive co-operation which may presage well for the future.
The referendum test of the agreement is more than a month away. But these early days and weeks are critically important. The two governments must not relax their efforts in assisting public opinion of all shades to a full appreciation of its positive aspects. It is a process which will be both demanding and risky. It will be a finely calculated point, for example, whether a visit from President Clinton would be wise. His presence, no doubt, would reassure nationalists. But it might have precisely the opposite effect on some unionists. These and other issues will demand very precise and astute judgment in coming weeks.