The latest report from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change underlines that there is a growing scientific consensus around its findings that global warming is happening as a result of human activities. The worldwide effects involved are now spelled out in more detail for each of the world's regions, including higher sea levels, more floods, droughts and storms and diminished agricultural yields.
These findings are based on a 1000-page report approved last week in Geneva at a conference of governmental delegations. They build on another comprehensive report agreed last month at a conference in Shanghai, in which general features of global warming were identified. They are clearly related to concentrations of atmospheric greenhouse gases as a result of "discernible human influence on global climate". While there is room for discussion about the precise predicted effects of such trends, it is becoming far more difficult to contest the emerging scientific consensus and the growing confidence with which it is expressed.
There is a stark contrast between these scientific findings and the unwillingness of political leaders the world over to take decisive action on them. It will probably require an extended period of public information, education and debate to bring the issues to the centre of political decision-making. But this series of reports also provides plenty of evidence that the events predicted will force governments to take action at home and through international co-operation. Populations assailed by increased storms, flooding and droughts - or the spread of tropical diseases to more temperate climates - will have good reason to insist that they be effectively addressed.
The established framework for such negotiations through the United Nations climate change conference, faces acute difficulties following the collapse of talks at The Hague last November. The European Union and United States delegations failed to reach a compromise which could have gone some small way to keep commitments made at Kyoto in December 1997 - to achieve an overall reduction of 5.2 per cent of greenhouse gas emissions - on the road. The new US administration is less committed to such multilateral solutions than its predecessor, despite the demonstrable responsibility of US producers and consumers for a high proportion of the emissions.
It has been shown with the ozone layer, that preventative action taken by governments following scientific research, can make a real difference. The ozone holes which opened up over the polar regions between the 1950s and 1980s are set to shrink after destructive chloroflourocarbons widely used in refrigerators and aerosols were banned in most countries. That should set a precedent for action on global warming to reduce the incidence of greenhouse gases which warm the earth's atmosphere. They are caused mainly by burning fossil fuels and therefore require action to reduce industrial and consumer use. But there is the rub - politicians are afraid to take on such powerful lobbies and consumers in the richer countries are unwilling to make the necessary sacrifices. Yesterday's report should help to reveal how shortsighted they are.