There is very good news for the Taoiseach, Mr Ahern; for his Government and for Fianna Fail in the findings of the latest Irish Times/MRBI opinion poll, published today. The remarkable popularity of the Fianna Fail leader has been maintained over the past six months. And the public support he secured as a result of the successful negotiation of the Belfast Agreement, at a time of deep personal loss, has been largely consolidated by the party. The record levels of personal popularity and party support set by Mr Ahern and Fianna Fail in April, may have eroded marginally in the meantime, but they are still in the stratospheric class. Support for Fianna Fail stands at 57 per cent; satisfaction with Mr Ahern at 81 per cent, and support for the Coalition Government at 68 per cent.
The news for Fianna Fail's partners in Government, the Progressive Democrats, is deeply disappointing by comparison. It secures just 2 per cent of the popular vote, down one point since April. And while the Tanaiste and party leader, Ms Harney, scores well on a personal level with a satisfaction rating of 62 per cent, her support and that of the Government has failed to lift the fortunes of the party.
The opposition parties have nothing to cheer about either. Support for Fine Gael is stuck at 20 per cent; the Labour Party stands at 12 per cent while Democratic Left holds just 2 per cent. Sinn Fein and the Green Party garner 3 per cent each. Public satisfaction with the Fine Gael leader, Mr Bruton, has fallen by 9 points, to 47 per cent, over the past six months, probably as a consequence of his statements on Northern Ireland. But support for all the political leaders has drifted downwards in recent months, after the high point of the Belfast Agreement. The Labour Party leader, Mr Quinn, saw a 7 point drop in his satisfaction rating to 51 per cent and Mr De Rossa of Democratic Left lost four points to 46 per cent.
The findings are not particularly surprising, given the powerful performance of the economy; the feelgood factor generated by falling unemployment levels; progress on Northern Ireland matters and the absence of political scandal. They place the Taoiseach and the Government in a powerful position to urge the implementation of all aspects of the Belfast Agreement, including decommissioning. And the Government can only gain in stature if it tackles the scandal of tax evasion which has been facilitated by the banking and financial sectors through offshore accounts, while reforming the regulatory State bodies.
Of more immediate interest to the political establishment will be the implications of the poll findings for the Cork South Central by-election, due to be held in two weeks time. Conventional wisdom has made the Fine Gael candidate, Mr Simon Coveney, the hot favourite to take the seat, with Ms Sinead Behan of Fianna Fail and Mr Toddy O'Sullivan of the Labour Party as runners up. By-elections do, of course, have their own special dynamic which produces results at variance with national trends and such contests are heavily influenced by local and emotional factors. On the basis of Fianna Fail's existing support level in Munster, however, Ms Behan should be favourite to win the seat. Complacency could serve Fine Gael a losing hand in the present circumstances.