Good News For Mr Ahern

All polls come with a warning, by now familiar to readers but more pointedly directed at those who, for their own reasons, note…

All polls come with a warning, by now familiar to readers but more pointedly directed at those who, for their own reasons, note and quote the results. The warning, implicit in the description, a snapshot in time, is particularly apt in the case of this morning's Irish Times/MRBI Poll. It was conducted in the days immediately following completion of the agreement on the future of Northern Ireland; an agreement loudly applauded there, in the Republic, and in Britain.

The Government's part in the successful negotiations is reflected in a satisfaction rating of 73 per cent; the Taoiseach's role, already praised by commentators and opponents, wins the approval of 84 per cent; and Fianna Fail's core vote is closer to 50 per cent than it has been for decades.

This is merited recognition for the Government, the Fianna Fail Party and especially Mr Ahern, whose courage and resilience at a time of deep personal loss were much admired by negotiators on all sides. It recognises, too, the efforts of the Taoiseach's colleagues, Mr Andrews and Ms O'Donnell, and of the advisers and officials who worked resolutely at their sides.

It is an endorsement of the Government's commitment to conciliatory policies, which have not only won the support of the Opposition in the Republic - parties already pledged to accommodation and partnership - but encouraged the Ulster Unionist Party and the SDLP to move in the same direction in their search for agreement.

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Mr Ahern is now well placed to promote the agreement reached in Belfast in what seems bound to become a robust referendum campaign at home while offering such help as may prudently be given to the agreement's supporters among unionists and nationalists in the North.

Leading from a position of strength, he and his colleagues have no reason to be swayed by those who argue for a return to old ways - largely rhetorical - or populist gestures to the wilder elements of Sinn Fein. Instead, the energy so profitably devoted to achieving agreement must be applied in the coming weeks to maintaining the momentum reached in the process.

Mr Ahern and his party scarcely need to be reminded how leads in the polls may be eroded in the course of a month-long campaign. And the memory of by-election defeats in Limerick East and Dublin North is too recent and too bitter to be ignored, should anyone feel tempted to suggest an opportunistic dash to the country.

Indeed, today's poll carries another reminder of events which may suddenly ambush a government on its way from one general election to the next: the findings of questions on the National Irish Bank (NIB) affair are salutary, not only for the banks but for the regulatory authorities and the Government.

NIB, predictably, comes in for especially heavy criticism: more than two-thirds of the respondents believe it handled the affair badly. But more than half are critical of the other main banks, the Central Bank and the Government; and, significantly, far more are in favour of legislation and the prosecution of suspected offenders than of remedies applied by the banks themselves.