The Government parties will take comfort from the findings of today's Irish Times/MRBI opinion poll, the first national survey of voters' intentions permitted by the foot-and-mouth restrictions since the beginning of this year. The minority Coalition enjoys a marginally increased level of satisfaction - 59 per cent - to top-up the 15 percentage point rise after the Budget. Despite a constant barrage of controversies - the resignation of Minister of State, Mr Ned O'Keeffe, in February, Mr Ray Burke's admissions on offshore accounts in March, the expulsion of Ms Beverley Cooper-Flynn in April, and the latest contretemps surrounding the Cardinal and Ms Celia Larkin - the Taoiseach's personal rating is barely dented and remains the highest of all party leaders. The Tanaiste's satisfaction rating has increased by 5 percentage points to 59 per cent.
Coupled with these impressive indicators, the support for the two Government parties, particularly Fianna Fail, is remarkably solid. With a general election no more than a year away, Fianna Fail is registering 42 per cent, up one point since January. Its core vote in this poll is similar to the 39 per cent first preference vote received in the 1992 and 1997 elections. The Progressive Democrats' support is unchanged.
If the Government can take comfort from the findings, they present a considerable challenge to the Opposition parties. There are mixed messages for Fine Gael. Mr Michael Noonan, in the first opinion poll since he became leader, is registering 37 per cent - a satisfaction rating identical to Mr John Bruton's just before he was deposed. It can safely be said of Mr Noonan that he has lacked the "good luck" ingredient which Napoleon liked to see in his generals. The two Fine Gael payments controversies have stopped him in his tracks. He can take consolation, however, from two other poll findings: some 35 per cent of voters have yet to make up their minds about him and, more importantly, the party's support has increased by 4 percentage points to 24 per cent.
With a helpful inconsistency in the message for Fine Gael, it is the Labour Party, arguably, which has most to fear from this poll. Its vote has dropped from 15 per cent to 13 per cent nationally over a few months. Its core vote is now 9 per cent. Mr Ruairi Quinn still holds a high rating of 47 per cent. What is somewhat ominous for Labour, however, is that Sinn Fein has moved into the position of the third biggest party in Dublin. Could there be any correlation between Labour's loss of five percentage points in Dublin since January and Sinn Fein's increase by the same amount? There are minor movements in the support for the smaller parties in the poll. The positions of the PDs and Sinn Fein are unchanged, with the latter retaining the 6 per cent support registered in January. There is a drop of 2 percentage points in support for the Green Party. The support for Independents remains relatively high. For all of that, two elements of this poll are surprising. The first is the solidity of the support for the major party in Government. The second is the failure of the combined Opposition parties - particularly Fine Gael - to dent its resilience. It remains to be seen whether the findings of this poll capture a mere snapshot in time or lay the foundations for the next general election. The initiative rests with the Opposition parties.