Imminent Cabinet makeover just got a lot more interesting but temptation to play safe may prove irresistible
THE FORTHCOMING Cabinet reshuffle has become far more interesting with the disclosure during the week that the Greens have a set of demands which threaten not only to strain their relationship with Fianna Fáil but to put their own internal cohesion to the test as well.
The danger for the Greens is that talk of rotating Cabinet Ministers, and getting an extra junior minister into the bargain, fuels an image of flakiness that will do nothing for the credibility of the coalition after the series of blows it has taken in the past month.
In fact, the Greens have been anything but flaky Coalition partners up to now. In a time of unprecedented economic crisis they have kept their nerve and supported really difficult decisions on the economy. The party’s handling of the recent disclosure about Trevor Sargent was cool and clinical and was in stark contrast to the poor judgment shown by Fianna Fáil in its reaction to the Willie O’Dea controversy.
There is no disguising the fact, however, that the emergence of uncertainty about the identity of the Green Cabinet members has thrown another spanner in the works at a difficult time. After days of confusion about what exactly they are looking for the party has taken a vow of silence and is saying nothing except that party leader John Gormley has been given the authority to deal with Brian Cowen on the reshuffle.
It appears there are two key issues to be sorted out before the reshuffle happens. One is directly in the hands of the Greens themselves and the other is a matter for the Taoiseach, yet both are interlinked. The issue for the Greens is whether they want to adhere to an internal agreement made by the parliamentary party members in June 2007 when they decided to go into coalition with Fianna Fáil.
The agreement was that party leader John Gormley would join the Cabinet as Minister for the Environment but would step down halfway through the Government’s life to be replaced by Dún Laoghaire Rathdown TD Ciarán Cuffe, an architect and town planner who is passionate about all the issues surrounding planning. That agreement has underpinned the internal cohesion of the Green parliamentary party since 2007 and, by extension, the stability of the Government.
Outside the Greens nobody believes for a moment that John Gormley will relinquish his Cabinet position to make way for a backbencher and even within the Greens, who arrive at decisions through a laborious process of consensus, there is an acceptance that the change is unlikely.
That is where the second secret agreement comes into play. It involved a commitment by then taoiseach Bertie Ahern to give the Greens a second junior ministry around the halfway mark in the life of the Coalition. It was a typically clever insurance policy by Ahern, designed to give the Greens an incentive to stay in Coalition to draw down the full value of the political deal.
The question, though, is whether that deal survived subsequent events. Ahern made way for Brian Cowen in May two years ago and then, a year ago, the new Taoiseach cut the number of junior ministers from 20 to 15, to try and get public acceptance for the range of cuts and tax increases affecting the general population.
The Greens actively promoted the notion of reducing the number of juniors and that has led to an assumption in Fianna Fáil that whatever deal Ahern might have concluded about an extra post for the Greens would automatically be null and void. That, however, is not the way the Greens see it and they now want Cowen to honour his predecessor’s deal. An extra junior minister would enable Gormley to get off the rotation hook by appointing Cuffe to the position, assuming that the TD would be prepared to accept such a post as a consolation prize.
The problem for Cowen is that conceding the position to the Greens would mean a reduction in the number of Fianna Fáil junior ministers and that would not exactly be popular with his own TDs. However, that is just one of the considerations facing the Taoiseach and it is not the most important.
The key issue for him is conducting a reshuffle that will keep the Coalition intact for as long as possible, while giving his Government a fresh image as it heads into its fourth year. Cowen has to calculate the potential difficulty that might be caused if, for instance, Cuffe became disillusioned as a result of the cancellation of both deals.
It is arguable that the Coalition’s longer- term prospects might be brighter if, in fact, Cuffe took over from Gormley as Minister for the Environment. He would want two years at least to make an impression in the role and that would be a force for stability.
The problem is that most people outside the Greens would regard the concept of rotating a Cabinet Minister at this stage as political madness. There is also the important fact that this deal was kept secret until now. Both the voters and the Fianna Fáil party were entitled to know when the Greens entered government in 2007 that they had this rotation agreement.
The assumption is that the easier and less destabilising decision for Cowen to make at this stage would be to give the Greens their second junior with Cuffe and deputy party leader Mary White getting promotion. This, however, will do nothing for the Greens in the eyes of the public who are likely to regard it as a cynical jobs-for-the-boys exercise.
In terms of his own party, Cowen has to decide whether to make the safe choices and fill the two Cabinet vacancies available due to the resignation of Willie O’Dea and Martin Cullen’s unfortunate chronic back ailment, or whether to undertake a serious reshuffle.
The expectation is that Cowen will take the cautious option but there is a strong case for sweeping changes. After three very difficult years in office which have resulted in record levels of unpopularity for the Taoiseach and record lows for Fianna Fáil, the reshuffle represents an opportunity to give the Government a new look as it faces into a period that could bring an election at any time.