NAPOLEON BONAPARTE is said to have preferred a lucky general to a good one. If you were to apply strict logic to the Green Party’s input into the current programme for government, its record so far has not been bad, perhaps even a good one.
In the real world, though, where success or failure is judged at the ballot box, it has been an unlucky general. Even if it had ticked off every single item of its modest list of commitments on the programme, that would not have avoided the near-wipeout the party suffered in the recent local elections.
The Greens may have been outspoken critics of rampant development during the Celtic Tiger era, but they have taken the
brunt of the public backlash following the property crash. Its decision to enter coalition with Fianna Fáil made it, electorally, an accomplice after the fact.
Any analysis of its performance in Government will show that it has won many battles and, through its two Ministers, has punched above its weight. But all those gains have had limited impact with the public because the political priorities and economic circumstances have changed so radically.
For example, it is likely that the commitment to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by 3 per cent each year may be achieved – but that’s due to the slump rather than a sway in the public’s disposition towards a sustainable way of life.
Elsewhere, the introduction of new building and energy standards, planning laws and insulation incentives were admirable but came too late. They coincided with a collapse in the building sector.
Likewise the new CO2 emissions-based system of vehicle registration tax and motor tax were introduced at the moment when car and van sales evaporated almost to nothing.
There have been some other real achievements, notably with the publication of the Civil Partnership Bill for same-sex couples and the ESB’s commitment to smart meters.
But the party has an “optics” quandary in that many of its core gains (greenhouse gas emissions, the Aarhus Convention, and better insulation for houses) just don’t capture the public imagination and also seem out of kilter with the new realities being faced by the country.
Faced with a potential existential crisis following its meltdown in the local elections, the party now needs a Government programme with Green fingerprints on every page if it is to avoid a similar fate at the next general election.
“We need to reinvent ourselves in Government and reinvent the Government,” is how a key party strategist portrays the challenge.
There have been three major shifts since the summer of 2007. The most obvious one has been the economic maelstrom, which has made redundant huge swathes of the existing programme. And this also applies to Fianna Fáil. Gone are the commitments to reduce the standard tax rate to 18 per cent and the marginal rate to 40 per cent. Gone too is the centrepiece of the Fianna Fáil manifesto: the abolition of the €48,000 PRSI ceiling and the halving of the tax from 4 per cent to 2 per cent.
There are no longer the resources to fund health and education commitments. Transport 21 and the National Development Plan will also emerge from the new programme slimmer and more modest.
The second change has been that the dynamics of the relationship between both parties has changed. The Green input into the 2007 programme was modest. Dan Boyle, one of its negotiators, admitted as much at the time. “This is not an ideal document. It’s not even a good document, but there are good elements,” was his downbeat assessment.
At the time, Green Party support was not critical to Fianna Fáil forming a government. Thus, the larger party would not budge on issues like the Shannon stopover, the M3 motorway, hospital co-location or the reversal of a waste policy that favoured incineration. The Greens explained all this away on the basis of the simple arithmetic of six versus 78.
The Greens may remain six but Fianna Fáil has lost Dáil support elsewhere and the reliance on the junior Coalition partner is now critical. Therefore, the party is in a much stronger bargaining position. And, smarting after a disastrous local election, there is no appetite among its membership for any milk-and-water compromises.
The third major shift has come from two years of cohabitation. “We have a programme in place. It gives a starting point where we can see what’s outstanding and what have to be the priorities.
“The other thing that is changed is that we know each other better. There is a greater level of trust. That accounts for something in politics,” said the strategist.
Trust or no trust, both parties are aware that the review will be based on radically changed circumstances. From the Green Party’s perspective, its approach will be informed by the outcome of a meeting it held on July 18th last to assess the fallout from the local elections, where its number of councillors fell from 18 to three. Each member was invited to make written suggestions and the results have been interesting in their emphasis on jobs and employment.
“Green members are just as fearful of the increase of unemployment. That was at the forefront of people’s minds,” said the strategist.
The key to the new document may be a policy that appeared nowhere in the 2007 programme for government. It’s the smart economy strategy that both parties have hailed as the long-term silver bullet solution. In July, Minister for Energy Eamon Ryan gave the first major indication of Government’s thinking in this area when he announced six projects, which included making Ireland the centre for energy-efficient data centres; an international brokerage for buying and selling internet and digital content; and introducing smart meters to every home in the country.
Both parties may be ad idem on this issue already. Expect the document to reorient both the IDA and Enterprise Ireland to focus more on this area, with an increased mandate to attract companies in the electric and hybrid car industry, tidal and ocean power, as well as other emerging enterprises combining technology and sustainability.
But the party will also have a long shopping list. It will look for more movement on core issues like climate change, energy, waste and the environment. It may press for a reversal of some education cutbacks, further limits to incineration and reform of the electoral agenda.
The party may also seek a ban on corporate donations but that is sure to be resisted by Fianna Fáil. Another long-standing party policy relates to electoral reform. One suggestion mooted after the July meeting was the axing of multi-seat Dáil constituencies in favour of single-seat constituencies or perhaps a list system. There is no prospect of that happening, though Fianna Fáil may agree to some structural changes in local and European elections.
Officially, Fianna Fáil is saying nothing, but privately says it is in listening mode, and knows the Green imprint must be evident. Party sources point to the Cabinet decision ahead of any talks to allow Minister for the Environment John Gormley draft a Climate Change Bill.
A carbon tax, albeit revenue-neutral, is also certain. The other factor that cannot be ignored is the input of the two former PD TDs, Mary Harney and Noel Grealish, both of whom will have their own demands.
Negotiations will begin later this week when Taoiseach Brian Cowen meets John Gormley to discuss the outline of negotiations. Both parties envisage the process taking a short period, perhaps a fortnight.
It is likely that the Greens will be in a position to put the new programme to its party membership in October. A two-thirds majority will be required to approve it.