Negotiations on the Northern peace process are entering their most crucial phase, writes Gerry Moriarty, Northern Editor
While there was hectic action in Belfast, Dublin and London yesterday, politics is still being viewed through a grey mist. The fog should start clearing in the next week, but whether we will be presented with deal, dodge or disaster remains open to question.
Sinn Féin president, Mr Gerry Adams, insisted yesterday the British and Irish governments had not provided the detail republicans require on how the Belfast Agreement would be fully implemented. Dublin and London in turn responded that republicans had a firm fix on what was on offer on the key issues.
The Ulster Unionist leader, Mr David Trimble, who on Saturday faces his Ulster Unionist Council for the 12th time since the Belfast Agreement was signed, was maintaining a watching brief from the sidelines.
The shadow boxing continues, but the real bout will begin when the Taoiseach, Mr Ahern, and the British Prime Minister, Mr Tony Blair, arrive in Hillsborough on Monday for head-to-head confrontations with the pro-Belfast Agreement parties.
Considering the mixed signals from some of the political parties, and the deep distrust between Sinn Féin on one side and the British government and the Ulster Unionists on the other, this contest could run to a protracted, possibly interrupted, 15 rounds.
Mr Adams and Sinn Féin's chief negotiator, Mr Martin McGuinness, had hoped to hold private talks with Mr Blair in London on Monday, but they were spotted by reporters. No need to be surprised, said Mr Blair's chief spokesman. "All sorts of contacts are going on at all levels." And so it will continue right through to Monday morning. Based on all these secret and public negotiations, the two leaders hope to have a general idea of a package to which the parties could agree when they meet in Downing Street tomorrow
But it will be no more than a general idea. Mr Adams agreed yesterday that "negotiations were now at a much higher gear", but when asked what Sinn Féin and the IRA would bring to the bargaining table, rather than answer directly he clicked the recriminations verbal switch.
He placed the onus on Mr Blair and indicated that before the IRA might declare whether it could carry out the "acts of completion" requested by the Prime Minister he must have chapter and verse on how the two governments would implement a 57-page list of demands issued by Sinn Féin.
Rather in the diversionary manner of Saddam Hussein seeking a TV debate with President Bush, he challenged "the anonymous briefers" who were claiming that republicans were holding up progress towards restoring the Stormont institutions to debate this issue on television.
Based on previous experience he wasn't prepared to trust pledges or commitments from the British government on issues such as demilitarisation, policing, devolving criminal justice and policing to the Assembly and an amnesty for IRA fugitives (the "On The Runs").
Said Mr Adams: "We have taken so many leaps of faith that we are almost like kangaroos." Those same "briefers" however were surprisingly categorical yesterday in insisting that Sinn Féin was refusing to indicate whether the IRA would end all paramilitary activity and back up such a commitment with a major act, or acts, of decommissioning - and that this was causing great frustration in Dublin and London.
Well-placed sources repeated that republicans had a good outline of how the British government would reciprocate radical movement by the IRA.
They went though the four main issues. On normalisation, they said republicans know that over three years the British army would topple virtually all its large installations along the Border, and that troop numbers would be reduced by about 5,000 and possibly more.
"That would mean there would be still troops here, but you wouldn't be able to see them," explained one insider.
On policing, they said that most of Patten was in place and that as soon "as a deal was do-able", former IRA prisoners would be allowed join the District Policing Partnerships and that semi-autonomous DPPs would operate in north, south, east and west Belfast.
Sinn Féin also wants all serving police officers, rather than recruits, to swear a human rights oath. However the British side says that republicans should acknowledge that the new code of ethics, which all officers must endorse, effectively meets that demand. The sources said a firm commitment was given to create a Northern Executive Department of Justice to run policing and criminal justice. One source said there were technical difficulties in switching responsibility for criminal justice and policing from Westminster to Stormont, but that while the transformation would take some time, the commitment to make that switch was genuine.
On the On The Runs, the sources said that they would be allowed to return to Northern Ireland without fear of prosecution. Equally, they added, that as this was such a sensitive issue there would be some form of quid pro quo to assist victims of paramilitary violence. The sources said there would also be movement on issues such as the Irish language, equality and human rights. Similar promises were made at Weston Park but not delivered upon, so why should republicans now trust any commitments? was Mr Adams' response?
Dublin and London believe that on these issues they can narrow the gap of distrust but that if republicans want "every t crossed and every i dotted in terms of their 57-page shopping-list then we are all in trouble - some of this has to be taken on the basis of trusting commitments that we give".
Bridging that gap will be the main focus of the high-powered talks beginning on Monday. As there is still a lot of work here the negotiations could take beyond Monday.
The other focus will be on determining whether Ulster Unionists will respond positively if the IRA does finally make the break with active paramilitarism.
We will have some measure of the answer to that question based on how Mr Trimble manages his Ulster Unionist Council annual meeting on Saturday.