Mr William Hague has tried to take a feather from Mr Tony Blair's cap with his decision to have a ballot among Conservative Party members on whether to support his leadership's line on Britain joining the euro. The current party line is that such a decision is ruled out for the duration of the next parliament - effectively, therefore, for 10 years. In an effort to head off dissident Tories determined to keep open a more nuanced approach to EMU if conditions and interests are right, Mr Hague seeks to determine the question ahead of his party's conference and to assert his own leadership, just as Mr Blair did over two years ago on Clause 4 of the Labour Party's constitution.
Critics have been quick to point out that the circumstances facing the two men are substantially different. Mr Hague blames his party's defeat last year (it seems a lot longer) on divisions over Europe which discredited it in the eyes of the electorate. But his strategy will open up and expose continuing cleavages, even if it does give him a comfortable victory over his opponents. They are unlikely to be silenced. Next year's European elections would provide them with a potentially embarrassing platform.
Mr Hague, like Mr Blair on Clause 4, has called this snap vote in opposition as a means of reinforcing his authority. But he has left very little time or room for debate, making it look like an exercise in plebiscitory democracy with a foreordained outcome. When it comes to the real referendum on joining EMU which Mr Blair has undertaken to hold, voters seem likely to rally more to the Tory dissidents and the probable cross-party majority in favour of the euro, than to the opposition in principle championed by the Tory leadership.
The political events and economic trends underlying the single currency project as it relates to Britain are simply not in Mr Hague's control. Mr Blair's summer cabinet shuffle confirmed a warmer relationship with the European Union and a greater commitment in his government to join EMU if it judge the conditions right. The latest uncertainties in the world economy have if anything deepened the euro's appeal as a haven of stability and relative economic strength, from which it would be foolish for Britain to stand aloof. They seem certain to stiffen the political resolve of the eleven governments already committed to join.
The Conservative Party may take a generation to recover from last year's defeat, many Labour strategists believe, if Mr Blair plays his political and constitutional hand effectively. EMU remains a crucial strategic choice facing Britain's rulers, but one easier to decide in a more devolved and modernised society, they say. Mr Hague's decision to copperfasten his hostility to the project would marginalise his party even further if this is the pattern of political events to come. It would, however, be foolish to assume too readily that this will the case. Mr Blair's devolution strategy could go badly wrong in Scotland, leading not to a stable devolution but majority support for independence. On the back of such a development Mr Hague's rejection of the euro could rally disenchanted English nationalism. Were the English to vote against the euro and the Scottish and Welsh in favour, the breakup of the UK he deplores would, ironically, be hastened.