Whatever about this weekend's decision at congress, Rule 42 of the association's Official Guide has not long left, writes Seán Moran
While the public considers tomorrow's debate at the annual congress of the GAA as purely about whether Croke Park can become a venue for international soccer and rugby, for the GAA itself those deliberations, and even the mechanics of the decision-making, are far more complex.
For a start, the actual proposal is that the GAA's Central Council be given the authority to consider leasing Croke Park while Lansdowne Road is being redeveloped. The reform goes no further and only the motions - there are seven altogether - that reflect this temporary status of change are regarded as having any realistic chance of acceptance.
One thing is, however, certain. Whatever about this weekend, Rule 42 of the association's Official Guide hasn't long left. Even if there's a "no" vote tomorrow - or more accurately a "yes" vote that's less than two-thirds - it's only a matter of time before the controversial provision disappears.
Changing attitudes within the GAA, particularly at the levels of ordinary membership, have emerged during the lead-up to this year's congress, and that altering mood will at some stage make itself felt at congress, the organisation's supreme decision-making body.
But equally, few will argue that the GAA faces embarrassment and the disapproval of the public at large if it effectively votes to send Irish supporters overseas for what will be supposedly "home" matches during Lansdowne Road redevelopment.
Even with congress beginning this evening in Croke Park, the likely result is not at all clear. Various units have declared their hands in recent weeks, and it's accurate to say that were every county to vote in accordance with its declared intentions, the reform would squeeze through.
The problem is that the required, weighted majority of two-thirds means that the ultimate verdict is prone to volatile swings. The total in favour of change hovers theoretically (on the basis of declared positions) around 220 with 99 opposed and 18 unclear.
As imposing a lead as that implies (there are 336 delegates entitled to attend), it straddles the fault line between acceptance and rejection, and it would take only a handful of votes to switch sides for the proposal to be defeated.
In all likelihood, the debate is heading for the same conclusion as a similar one four years ago when a vote to hand authority in the matter to Croke Park was passed 176-89, just one switched vote from the necessary majority. Even those figures demonstrate the difficulty of predicting an outcome, as the total is nearly 70 votes short of the numbers entitled to participate.
Tomorrow's presidential election is thought likely to ensure a high turnout of voters, but that won't take account of deliberate absenteeism when the Rule 42 vote takes place.
The method of voting is also considered a vital influence. Given that some delegates openly broke mandate in 2001 during the show-of-hands vote, the prospect of a secret ballot brings with it the likelihood of widespread freelancing.
Whereas a paper vote has been recommended by both the GAA's Management Committee and Central Council, the actual decision will be taken on the floor of congress. The vast majority of delegates favour change and it is probable that they will vote for a show of hands, which is perceived as a more reliable method of policing mandates.
To the general public all of this politicking must appear bizarre in the face of a minimalist proposal that would simply prevent Irish sports followers, including many loyal GAA supporters, having to travel overseas to watch "home" internationals. Consequently, many in the GAA are apprehensive about the public relations uproar that would inevitably follow a refusal to accept even limited change.
Former GAA president Peter Quinn spoke during the week about his own discomfort at the prospect of the economic loss to the community of the business generated by international matches going abroad. But significantly he also pointed out that the GAA is not motivated by financial considerations.
So whereas many outside of the organisation see a practical problem of where to stage matches, how to ensure business doesn't get exported, and the means whereby the GAA can earn some money from an idle stadium, that's not how it plays within the association.
Conservative opinion is intensely suspicious of rugby and, especially, soccer, either because of the threat those sports are seen to pose as competitors for the allegiance of rising generations of children or because of fears that the GAA would lose the independence and exclusivity that has made it culturally distinct. The relatively low-key revenue on offer from the leasing of Croke Park is unlikely to assuage those misgivings.
On the other side, the strongest dynamic is the desire to modify precisely that culture of exclusivity and welcome other sports to a ground of which the GAA is uniformly and terrifically proud. The resulting money is seen as useful but not the overwhelming motivation.
That desire to do the neighbourly thing while soccer and rugby are temporarily homeless has surfaced strongly in recent weeks. Counties that previously were strongly opposed to opening up Croke Park have been prevailed on to change their policy by the prompting of ordinary clubs. Even Cork, hardcore traditionalists and the only county south of Monaghan to oppose change, experienced club rebellion, which was only suppressed by procedural sleight of hand.
The deeper into the GAA you go for an opinion on this matter the more likely you are to find a mood for change that makes the abolition of Rule 42 an inevitability, sooner rather than later.
And that is in a way the biggest nightmare haunting the GAA, because not alone would a narrow defeat for the proposal - accompanied, as it would have to be, by tales of betrayed mandates - ensure a firestorm of bad publicity, but it would also leave the association in the untenable position of clinging to a policy that is strikingly at odds with the views of its membership.
Seán Moran is The Irish Times Gaelic Games correspondent