Serbia's presidential election was effectively a referendum on its relations with the European Union and Boris Tadic's victory on Sunday is a decisive endorsement of its desire to forge a closer link with Brussels. The 51-48 per cent result on a relatively high turnout is clear-cut and undisputed and was widely welcomed elsewhere in Europe yesterday. Mr Tadic's opponent Tomislav Nikolic proposed closer Serb relations with Russia and complete opposition to looming Kosovo independence. But although this election will change the political calculus the EU still faces a formidable challenge in managing Kosovo's future and encouraging Serbia on a long-term path towards EU membership.
The Serb presidency is largely a ceremonial position, and Mr Nikolic's ultra-nationalist Radicals are the majority party in the governing coalition. Most Serb voters remain unreconciled to Kosovo independence, which realistically is inevitable since Hashim Thaci's victory in last year's parliamentary elections there and repeated expressions of political will for it. This may be somewhat delayed after the Serb vote, but not for long. However it plays out, there will be acute tension in the Serb government on how best to respond. But its ministers will now have to take full account of Serb public opinion. Plainly its citizens prefer an escape from political and cultural isolation through the development of more normal relations with the EU to another round of intransigence over Kosovo linked to a closer bond with Russia.
Carrots and sticks have been readily deployed in this prolonged diplomatic and political stand-off. The latest offer from Brussels is for an interim accord putting Serbia on the route to eventual EU membership, pending the signing of a more formal Stabilisation and Association Agreement. The Netherlands has refused to agree on that until prominent Serbs accused of war crimes are handed over to the international criminal court in The Hague hearing cases arising from the 1992-5 Bosnian wars. The logic of this vote is that the matter should now be addressed once and for all.
But those dealing with Serbian leaders should realise how difficult it is for them to climb down from the suspicion and paranoia created by this prolonged confrontation. There should be no compromise on the main principles involved in the war crimes trial; but it should be possible to encourage a way out of isolation by other means now that this risky vote has gone the EU's way.
There is a growing understanding elsewhere in Europe that eventually the EU will enlarge to take Serbia and other former parts of ex-Yugoslavia into full membership. That has as much to do with consolidating a peaceful Europe as expanding the EU's frontiers. The expectation and hope of EU membership has driven reforms in the Balkan region, creating conditions in which a return to the 1990s war became more and more unthinkable. Serbian voters have shown once again that they want to be part of this better future.