As the new political season opens with the return of the Dáil next Wednesday, the findings of today's Irish Times/TNS mrbi opinion poll will be parsed and analysed by all of the parties. Some 18 months before the next general election campaign, at a time when many strategists believe that firm judgments are made about outgoing governments, the level of dissatisfaction with the current Coalition has increased dramatically.
There has been a drop of 15 percentage points in the Government's satisfaction rating this year. The personal standing of the Taoiseach has been dented again. Yet the level of support for all of the political parties has changed only marginally over the summer months.
All parties will be able to find some comfort in today's findings after a summer dominated by the return of the "Colombia Three", the Rip Off Republic series on RTÉ and the growing Loyalist discontent in Northern Ireland. Set against the backdrop of parliamentary strategy sessions in Cavan, Mullingar, Clonmel and Dublin in recent weeks, Fianna Fáil and the Progressive Democrats will be happy that the Fine Gael/Labour/Green Party alternative has failed to capitalise on their misfortunes and misjudgments. Fianna Fáil will be hoping that the drop in the party's support may have bottomed out since June. The Taoiseach's satisfaction may have plummeted by seven points but Mr Ahern is still the most popular party leader. And the Tánaiste's personal rating has not changed significantly despite the long hot summer of discontent about the health service.
The alternative coalition parties can find comfort also in the small print of the findings. Fine Gael has retained the 25 per cent support level which it achieved in June, the highest for the party in five years. There is no change in the position of the Labour Party. And the combined strength of Fine Gael and the Labour Party, with the Green Party excluded, is one percentage point ahead of the combined total of Fianna Fáil and the PDs.
At this point in the lifetime of the Government, however, the trend is more important than the minor changes in party ratings in this poll. And the trend is instructive for the current Coalition and any Fine Gael-led alternative. The level of satisfaction with the Taoiseach, the Tánaiste and the Government has dropped for the third consecutive poll this year. But the proposed alternative of Fine Gael, Labour and possibly the Green Party has not benefited accordingly. This scenario presents the biggest challenge to the alternative combinations in the 18-month run-up to a 2007 election.
Approaching the end of a 10-year period in Government, can Fianna Fáil and the PDs win back the confidence of voters? With Fianna Fáil in Government for 16 of the last 18 years, is the demand for change irreversible? These questions are not answered. Fianna Fáil can take reasonable comfort from this poll but Fine Gael and Labour will be disappointed that they are not reaping the benefits of the dissatisfaction with the Government.