The first anniversary of East Timor's referendum on independence - when 78.5 per cent voted in favour in a 98.6 per cent turnout - finds the young nation still suffering from the effects of the Indonesian occupation and its people still traumatised by the militia rampage, which followed the voting, in which thousands died. Reports indicate renewed activity by small groups of militia, with the large United Nations force unable or unwilling to engage them. And this week's congress of the National Council for Timorese Resistance finds the national movement split into various factions - which could affect next year's elections and the formal assumption of sovereignty when the UN transitional authority takes its leave.
The renewed militia activity was highlighted by several UN spokesmen yesterday. Estimates of the numbers involved are small, but indicate considerable expertise and military skill. That almost certainly means they are operating in collusion with Indonesian army units based in West Timor. There are still at least 120,000 East Timorese in camps there. It is clear that even such small groups are capable of terrorising entire village communities, based on the memory of last year's atrocities. Attacks on UN peacekeeping personnel have heightened tension and led to speculation about whether this prefigures a much more dangerous set of engagements or whether it will settle down as a low intensity irritant.
That ambiguity explains the reluctance of UN officials to commit military forces they command to crack down on the militias. Lieut-Gen Boonsrang Niumpradit, the Thai commander of the UN peacekeeping force, in an interview with this newspaper, says "we do not want to exchange lives with these people . . . It's just not worth it. We have to use another strategy." He also says, more disturbingly, that the rules do not allow UN soldiers do that. There are two principles here, one prudential, the other political-legal. It may well be that other means can be found to control militia infiltrations. But if they cannot, there is a grave risk that the UN force could be humiliated as in Bosnia or Rwanda.
The mandate in East Timor was carefully calculated to anticipate just such problems and the allocation of tough fighting troops such as the Army Rangers was intended to underline that commitment. This is in keeping with developing policy on peacekeeping, including in a report last week to the UN Secretary General, Mr Kofi Annan, which speaks of the need for peacekeepers to defend themselves and their mandate with robust rules of engagement if attacked.
East Timor faces a major task of political, social and economic development as it attempts to recover from Indonesian occupation. The international effort focused on the UN transition authority can do much to encourage that development - although many feel the great gaps between the international force and the local communities they are to work with, inhibit the effort. But unless the East Timorese themselves can resolve their disagreements by creating a multi-party system, it will be difficult to hold elections and prepare a constitution for an independent state. The East Timorese must be helped and convinced by all those who have worked with them to attain that goal.