To the great relief of many Poles and sympathetic observers elsewhere in Europe the deeply unstable Polish coalition government has collapsed and elections are expected in the autumn. Prime minister Jaroslav Kaczynski this week dismissed ministers from two smaller parties and is ready to take the risk of facing the voters this autumn, two years ahead of time.
The coalition's combination of illiberal populism, conspiratorial suspicion, neurotic defence of national sovereignty and Catholic fundamentalism was quite new in Poland's post-communist history. But a similar ideological configuration could recur after these elections, since Poland's party system is still being formed. Mr Kaczynski's conservative Law and Justice Party scored a surprising victory in the 2005 elections on a platform of cutting taxes, reforming public administration and a determination to make political and bureaucratic elites account for their co-operation with the communist regime. It is in bitter competition with the opposition Civic Platform party for the right-wing ground in Polish politics. Civic Platform draws on urban liberal as well as conservative support, the latter of which Mr Kaczynski competes for.
This makes a coalition between the two parties unlikely. The former communists, now grouped in the Democratic Left Alliance along with social democrats, lost popularity after forming the previous government. The two smaller outgoing parties trail in the polls and might not be able to reach the 5 per cent threshold required for representation in parliament. For this reason their existing MPs were very cautious about another election in a similar crisis last month. Despite this survival instinct Mr Kaczynski has decided to take the risk, convinced the coalition's vicious factionalism has had its day and that he has a chance of being returned to power.
Poland has suffered a great deal from the uncertainty and unpredictability of the last two years. Instead of cutting taxes they have been increased, while public service reform has languished as a generalised mistrust driven by Mr Kaczynski's conspiratorial partisanship pervaded the civil service. Political management has been sacrificed along the way. The government has been fortunate that this has coincided with an economic boom stimulated in part by European Union transfers; but the opportunities arising from that have been squandered, along with much of the goodwill from Brussels and other capitals. Hopefully an election will galvanise energies towards a more effective political realignment among Poland's disillusioned voters and civil society, but it may take longer to materialise than many expect.