There is a long tradition of Northern Ireland politicians returning after the holiday period to attempt to regain the initiative following a summer dominated by violence.
This year is no exception. The increased loyalist paramilitary activity through August, the arrests of three suspected IRA men in Colombia and the spectacular eruption of north Belfast's old hatreds again create a sense that politics is being supplanted by paramilitarism and sectarianism.
As political activity resumes, there is no indication that the Irish and British governments are preparing any urgent political initiative to drive the agenda beyond the current confrontations.
Sources in both say there is almost nothing left to discuss on the unresolved issues of decommissioning, demilitarisation, policing and the restoration of the political institutions. September 23rd is the latest deadline for agreement on these issues, but in government circles the talk is of what will happen after that, not before.
Brian Cowen is expected to meet Sinn Fein shortly, but will spend most of this week in the Middle East. Government sources expect little to happen before his return next weekend. At this point, nobody expects agreement before the deadline.
David Trimble is under enormous pressure from within his Ulster Unionist Party and seems unable to concede any more. A grand gesture from the IRA on decommissioning appears to hold the only prospect to save the institutions from suspension, and that seems unlikely.
In the wake of the events in Ardoyne, the republican movement is less likely than ever to feel pressure from its own supporters to begin actual decommissioning.
That, of course, could change. Last month the IRA withdrew its offer to agree a method of putting its weapons beyond use. In the context of progress in renewed negotiations, however, such an offer could be quickly reinstated.
But there is no expectation that this will happen. Without it, there appears no prospect of unionism agreeing to continue to operate the political institutions.
The British government will then be faced with a choice between calling fresh Assembly elections, at which Sinn Fein and the Democratic Unionist Party would be likely to make some gains, and suspending the troubled political institutions pending a "review". It is considered very likely to choose the latter.
This move, while seeming like a defeat for politics, is not quite that. The past month has seen an intense period of activity and progress on the law, order and justice issues around which the Northern conflict has revolved for a long time.
The issues of police reform, reform of the criminal justice system and a bill of rights have all moved forward, and appear set to continue to do so, however the crisis in the new political institutions is played out over the next fortnight.
The Belfast Agreement and politics generally have not yet run into the sand, despite this week's depressing events. Indeed, the loyalist protests in Ardoyne have been prompted not so much by a feeling that politics is having no effect, but that politics is indeed bringing about change, and the change is not to loyalists' liking.
The process of police reform is continuing. Last month saw the SDLP's historic decision to back the new policing arrangements and to nominate members to the new policing boards.
While the UUP is prevaricating, most observers still believe it will announce this month that it is to participate. Withholding support from the police service after its officers have been subjected to blast-bombs and rioters on the streets seems an unlikely action for mainstream unionism. Once the UUP joins up, the DUP will be expected to fulfil its pledge to follow the UUP on to the new bodies.
The new police board would then become operational. It will have some 30 decisions to take in its first six months on matters such as a code of ethics for the new force, education and development strategy, a police college and, of course, a consultation process on the emotive issues of badges and flags.
While deep divisions remain on these issues, reform will nevertheless move on, with or without Sinn Fein and with or without working political institutions.
REFORM of the criminal justice system will also take a step forward very soon, possibly next week, with the publication of the implementation plan for the criminal justice review and draft legislation to bring it into effect.
Last Monday the North's Human Rights Commission published its proposals for a bill of rights, which will now be subject to a consultation process before finalisation. All of these issues are likely to progress, whatever happens on September 23rd.
They may, however, be making progress in a deeply unhealthy political climate. With its political institutions suspended at least for the winter, the attempt to build a durable political process in Northern Ireland will have fallen back substantially, despite progress on law, policing and justice issues.
Those who were motivated to vent their anger on schoolchildren last week will have even more reason to feel they have no role or say in political decision-making affecting their lives.
A procedural manoeuvre in August gave another six weeks for talks before the British government must either suspend the Northern Assembly for a considerable period or call new elections. Just a fortnight remains before the latest deadline, and neither of the governments is talking up the chances.
Mark Brennock is Political Correspondent of The Irish Times