The Taoiseach and the Northern Secretary are obliged to apply a degree of caution in responding to the crisis now looming over the multi-party talks as a result of this week's Belfast murders. Neither the reports of commentators nor the intelligence offered by the Chief Constable on the likely identity of the murderers should be taken as sufficient grounds, at this stage, to put Sinn Fein outside the door. A process of adjudication exists to deal with situations like this. It requires that in order to be expelled there must be "incontrovertible evidence" that a party has dishonoured the Mitchell Principles. That process and that standard of proof must be adhered to.
What is certain is that when the talks resume on Monday at Dublin Castle, Sinn Fein - the IRA's political wing - must face an indictment for the two murders, one of a drugs dealer, the other of a middle-ranking member of the Ulster Freedom Fighters. In our editions of yesterday, this newspaper's well-informed Security Correspondent had no hesitation in ascribing the murders to an IRA unit from West Belfast. The Chief Constable, in a statement issued early yesterday, said his information was that the IRA was involved.
Yet comparisons with the events which led to the expulsion of the UDP from the talks in the wake of violence by the UFF, may not be wholly applicable. The IRA itself has said that its ceasefire is intact whereas the UFF had unhesitatingly declared its intention of conducting a campaign of violence. It is possible that this week's murders were conducted by elements within the IRA which are hostile to the peace process and which acted without the full authority of their paramilitary masters. Equally, it is possible that these killings reflect some emerging or deepening split between the leadership of Sinn Fein and certain elements within the IRA.
This is to take a benign or optimistic outlook. The facts must be further uncovered when the talks resume on Monday. It may be that the Chief Constable will have additional information, perhaps including forensic evidence. It may be that information will emerge linking the murders directly to the mainstream IRA command - the elements whose interests are represented in the talks process by Sinn Fein. In that event, there can be only one outcome. Sinn Fein must be expelled either permanently or until such time as it becomes clear that there is a complete cessation of violence by the IRA - and that could take a long time. For Sinn Fein has already been given a second chance, being admitted to the talks after a six-week period once the IRA's second ceasefire had been put in place. There must be no token smack on the wrist if the IRA's full involvement is proven in these murders.
Only a fool would argue that the talks process would be other than seriously damaged in the event of Sinn Fein being expelled. In the worst scenario, the Sinn Fein/IRA axis might declare no confidence in the political process and resume a full-blown campaign of violence. That is perhaps unlikely, but if it came about it would have to be endured. In a scenario which did not revert to violence, the SDLP would be left to negotiate on behalf of the nationalist community. The SDLP chairman, Mr Mark Durkan, has said he never bought the notion that talks without Sinn Fein are "not worth a penny candle", thus holding out the possibility that the SDLP on its own might seek to come to an accommodation, in the first instance, with the UUP led by Mr David Trimble. It would not be the preferred prospect. But there are many who argue that a settlement in Northern Ireland will be established, in the first instance, among those who inhabit the middle ground.